Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (83%) · Spirit at 75¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Spirit
6
Spirit 83%
$8.7K
-$456.43
73.2¢ → 74.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSpirit at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO Gooooooollllllllll | Spiritavg 73¢ | $5.5K | $5.5K | -$0 | 46% 509-589 (1098) |
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR | FUT Esportsavg 26.8¢ | $3.2K | $2.7K | -$453.51 | 54% 127-109 (236) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Spiritavg 76¢ | $304 | $298 | -$6 | 10% 89-787 (876) |
GH ghorrock | Spiritavg 74.1¢ | $109.44 | $103.06 | +$1.22 | 54% 401-336 (737) |
IW iWasEnough<$100 | Spiritavg 73¢ | $87.74 | $89.54 | +$1.8 | — 2-0 (2) |
NO NOO-Yes<$100 | Spiritavg 74¢ | $8.75 | $8.81 | +$0.06 | — 2-2 (4) |
Invested
$5,474.57
Value
$5.5K
PnL
-$0
Record
46%
509-589 (1098)
Invested
$3,163.76
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$453.51
Record
54%
127-109 (236)
Invested
$304
Value
$298
PnL
-$6
Record
10%
89-787 (876)
Invested
$109.44
Value
$103.06
PnL
+$1.22
Record
54%
401-336 (737)
Invested
$87.74
Value
$89.54
PnL
+$1.8
Record
—
2-0 (2)
Invested
$8.75
Value
$8.81
PnL
+$0.06
Record
—
2-2 (4)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.