Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (72%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Games Total: O/U 3.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 28¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 15

Over72¢Under28¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

-$164.82

Smart Money Entry

26.5¢ → 28.5¢

+8% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 72%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over72%

Under28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$4.1K

Total Shares5,663

Combined PnL-$65.79

Under9 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares20,601

Combined PnL-$99.04

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+35 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Vladooos	Overavg 74¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$68.23	64% 50-28 (78)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 26.7¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$40	53% 1840-1607 (3447)
forsenxdCTR	Underavg 26¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0.99	49% 380-403 (783)
vtcchampion52CTR	Underavg 27.6¢	$1.0K	$951.78	-$58.27	48% 876-942 (1818)
AC acorpCTR	Underavg 27¢	$652.05	$627.9	-$24.15	— 8-3 (11)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 25¢	$463.02	$481.5	+$18.48	50% 2819-2838 (5657)
SU suntori	Overavg 73.2¢	$445.69	$441.51	-$4.18	46% 3134-3672 (6806)
YI yishiwuchengCTR	Underavg 26¢	$437.39	$427.77	+$0.38	59% 103-73 (176)
ZZ Zzzz87	Overavg 72.7¢	$367.82	$374.44	+$6.62	59% 111-77 (188)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Underavg 27¢	$216	$208	-$8	30% 484-1124 (1608)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 21.8¢	$52.35	$62.57	+$10.21	49% 1298-1372 (2670)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$4.4	$5.72	+$1.32	46% 950-1137 (2087)

Vladooos

Over

Invested

$3,365.83

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$68.23

Record

64%

50-28 (78)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$1,599.98

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$40

Record

53%

1840-1607 (3447)

forsenxdCTR

Under

Invested

$1,030.14

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0.99

Record

49%

380-403 (783)

vtcchampion52CTR

Under

Invested

$1,010.05

Value

$951.78

PnL

-$58.27

Record

48%

876-942 (1818)

acorpCTR

Under

Invested

$652.05

Value

$627.9

PnL

-$24.15

Record

—

8-3 (11)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$463.02

Value

$481.5

PnL

+$18.48

Record

50%

2819-2838 (5657)

suntori

Over

Invested

$445.69

Value

$441.51

PnL

-$4.18

Record

46%

3134-3672 (6806)

yishiwuchengCTR

Under

Invested

$437.39

Value

$427.77

PnL

+$0.38

Record

59%

103-73 (176)

Zzzz87

Over

Invested

$367.82

Value

$374.44

PnL

+$6.62

Record

59%

111-77 (188)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Under

Invested

$216

Value

$208

PnL

-$8

Record

30%

484-1124 (1608)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.35

Value

$62.57

PnL

+$10.21

Record

49%

1298-1372 (2670)

lryyyCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.4

Value

$5.72

PnL

+$1.32

Record

46%

950-1137 (2087)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 72%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+35 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

73% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance30.5%

28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$227.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

327.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.