Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA - Map 3 Winner

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Spirit (38%) · Spirit at 57¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Spirit57¢FURIA43¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Spirit

Consensus Traders

Spirit 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$9.91

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 57.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Spirit57%

FURIA43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,775

Combined PnL-$7.1

FURIA5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,621

Combined PnL+$17.01

Spirit — 38%FURIA — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFURIA 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000FURIA 80% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO nobody2somebody	Spiritavg 58¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$10	— 9-8 (17)
shibaijiaoyiyuanCTR	FURIAavg 42¢	$859.39	$869.62	+$10.23	49% 17-18 (35)
forsenxd	Spiritavg 57¢	$386.02	$389.41	+$3.39	49% 380-403 (783)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	FURIAavg 47.5¢	$522.46	$274.44	+$2.01	50% 1088-1092 (2180)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 47.5¢	$171.86	$153.9	-$33.21
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 50.8¢	$106.48	$120.53	+$35.22
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Spiritavg 57¢	$215.04	$217.17	+$2.13	56% 4148-3245 (7393)
└ Spirit leg	Spiritavg 57¢	$137.15	$138.35	+$1.2
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 42¢	$77.89	$78.82	+$0.93
AN AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR	FURIAavg 41¢	$168.24	$174.4	+$6.16	50% 109-108 (217)
SU suntori<$100	Spiritavg 58¢	$57.14	$56.65	-$0.49	46% 3134-3672 (6806)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	FURIAavg 42¢	$53.76	$54.4	+$0.64	48% 3920-4262 (8182)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	FURIAavg 41¢	$11	$11.26	+$0.27	39% 1520-2392 (3912)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	FURIAavg 45¢	$4.25	$3.96	-$0.28	53% 2282-2055 (4337)

nobody2somebody

Spirit

Invested

$1,159.76

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$10

Record

—

9-8 (17)

shibaijiaoyiyuanCTR

FURIA

Invested

$859.39

Value

$869.62

PnL

+$10.23

Record

49%

17-18 (35)

forsenxd

Spirit

Invested

$386.02

Value

$389.41

PnL

+$3.39

Record

49%

380-403 (783)

NotJumpARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$522.46

Value

$274.44

PnL

+$2.01

Record

50%

1088-1092 (2180)

Both legs:

FURIA$171.8647.5¢-$33.21

Spirit$106.4850.8¢+$35.22

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Spirit

Invested

$215.04

Value

$217.17

PnL

+$2.13

Record

56%

4148-3245 (7393)

Both legs:

Spirit$137.1557¢+$1.2

FURIA$77.8942¢+$0.93

AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR

FURIA

Invested

$168.24

Value

$174.4

PnL

+$6.16

Record

50%

109-108 (217)

suntori<$100

Spirit

Invested

$57.14

Value

$56.65

PnL

-$0.49

Record

46%

3134-3672 (6806)

38791873984189CTR<$100

FURIA

Invested

$53.76

Value

$54.4

PnL

+$0.64

Record

48%

3920-4262 (8182)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

FURIA

Invested

$11

Value

$11.26

PnL

+$0.27

Record

39%

1520-2392 (3912)

ghorrockCTR<$100

FURIA

Invested

$4.25

Value

$3.96

PnL

-$0.28

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

Research grade

NeutralSpirit at 57%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Spirit

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Spirit. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFURIA 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000FURIA 80% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Spirit wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.