Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winner
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold MASONIC (73%) · MASONIC at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
MASONIC
11
MASONIC 73%
$1.8K
-$108.21
51.2¢ → 97¢
+89% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralMASONIC at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | MASONICavg 55¢ | $983.46 | $955.25 | -$28.21 | 62% 87-53 (140) |
NO NotJumpCTR | The Last Resortavg 50¢ | $262.5 | $262.5 | +$0 | 54% 417-355 (772) |
31 319113331313111 | MASONICavg 50.6¢ | $1.8K | $238.64 | -$45.76 | 57% 102-76 (178) |
 poshposh<$100 | MASONICavg 39¢ | $65.72 | $88.5 | +$22.78 | 47% 507-571 (1078) |
 Future-Tarot-Trader | MASONICavg 58.5¢ | $1.3K | $80.19 | -$12.69 | 48% 79-86 (165) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | The Last Resortavg 41.9¢ | $44.01 | $58.36 | +$14.36 | 37% 524-893 (1417) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | MASONICavg 41.2¢ | $20 | $47.32 | +$27.32 | 34% 270-526 (796) |
LR lryyy<$100 | MASONICavg 37¢ | $24.06 | $37.38 | +$13.31 | 44% 372-473 (845) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | MASONICavg 34.3¢ | $26.44 | $28.11 | +$1.66 | 48% 2064-2270 (4334) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | MASONICavg 89.8¢ | $28.23 | $22.24 | -$4.97 | 60% 667-444 (1111) |
LI LiquidifierCTR<$100 | The Last Resortavg 68¢ | $99.68 | $3.66 | -$96.02 | 13% 13-88 (101) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$983.46
Value
$955.25
PnL
-$28.21
Record
62%
87-53 (140)
Invested
$262.5
Value
$262.5
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
417-355 (772)
Invested
$1,827.15
Value
$238.64
PnL
-$45.76
Record
57%
102-76 (178)
poshposh<$100Invested
$65.72
Value
$88.5
PnL
+$22.78
Record
47%
507-571 (1078)
Future-Tarot-TraderInvested
$1,296.42
Value
$80.19
PnL
-$12.69
Record
48%
79-86 (165)
Invested
$44.01
Value
$58.36
PnL
+$14.36
Record
37%
524-893 (1417)
Invested
$20
Value
$47.32
PnL
+$27.32
Record
34%
270-526 (796)
Invested
$24.06
Value
$37.38
PnL
+$13.31
Record
44%
372-473 (845)
Invested
$26.44
Value
$28.11
PnL
+$1.66
Record
48%
2064-2270 (4334)
Invested
$28.23
Value
$22.24
PnL
-$4.97
Record
60%
667-444 (1111)
Invested
$99.68
Value
$3.66
PnL
-$96.02
Record
13%
13-88 (101)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f
MASONIC — $955.25
NotJump
CTRThe Last Resort — $262.5
319113331313111
MASONIC — $238.64
poshposh
MASONIC — $88.5
Future-Tarot-Trader
MASONIC — $80.19
topdogbigboi
CTRThe Last Resort — $58.36
pauleta23
MASONIC — $47.32
lryyy
MASONIC — $37.38
38791873984189
MASONIC — $28.11
lonmi2511
MASONIC — $22.24