Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold The Last Resort, while the market favors MASONIC (53%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold The Last Resort (50%) · The Last Resort at 48¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

The Last Resort48¢MASONIC52¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

The Last Resort

Consensus Traders

The Last Resort 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$782.24

Smart Money Entry

46.1¢ → 47.5¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralThe Last Resort at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

The Last Resort

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors MASONIC 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

The Last Resort48%

MASONIC53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

The Last Resort4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,986

Combined PnL+$743.63

MASONIC4 traders

Total Value$646.54

Total Shares1,241

Combined PnL+$38.61

The Last Resort — 50%MASONIC — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on The Last Resort. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMASONIC 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000The Last Resort 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FeedTheBigBirdCTR	The Last Resortavg 46¢	$1.0K	$1.5K	+$429.36	57% 12-9 (21)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	The Last Resortavg 45.8¢	$661.44	$939.65	+$278.21	54% 140-119 (259)
38 38791873984189	MASONICavg 54.2¢	$505.39	$541.02	+$35.63	48% 2064-2270 (4334)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	MASONICavg 50¢	$262.5	$322.88	+$60.38	54% 417-355 (772)
└ The Last Resort leg	The Last Resortavg 50¢	$131.25	$170.63	+$39.38
└ MASONIC leg	MASONICavg 50¢	$131.25	$152.25	+$21
31 319113331313111CTR	The Last Resortavg 48.2¢	$712.51	$157.25	+$26.74	57% 102-76 (178)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	The Last Resortavg 48.8¢	$343.23	$105.88	-$15.15	62% 87-53 (140)
└ The Last Resort leg	The Last Resortavg 48.8¢	$80.91	$78.79	+$2.84
└ MASONIC leg	MASONICavg 57.2¢	$29.53	$27.09	-$17.99
PA Pan9X<$100	MASONICavg 54.1¢	$59.89	$65.91	+$6.03	49% 1068-1120 (2188)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	The Last Resortavg 49¢	$19.04	$28.37	+$9.33	47% 1493-1672 (3165)
CI cigarettes<$100	MASONICavg 21¢	$21.66	$20.11	-$1.55	53% 6071-5438 (11509)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	MASONICavg 21¢	$21	$19.5	-$1.5	37% 524-893 (1417)

FeedTheBigBirdCTR

The Last Resort

Invested

$1,039.49

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$429.36

Record

57%

12-9 (21)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

The Last Resort

Invested

$661.44

Value

$939.65

PnL

+$278.21

Record

54%

140-119 (259)

38791873984189

MASONIC

Invested

$505.39

Value

$541.02

PnL

+$35.63

Record

48%

2064-2270 (4334)

NotJumpARB<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$262.5

Value

$322.88

PnL

+$60.38

Record

54%

417-355 (772)

Both legs:

The Last Resort$131.2550¢+$39.38

MASONIC$131.2550¢+$21

319113331313111CTR

The Last Resort

Invested

$712.51

Value

$157.25

PnL

+$26.74

Record

57%

102-76 (178)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$343.23

Value

$105.88

PnL

-$15.15

Record

62%

87-53 (140)

Both legs:

The Last Resort$80.9148.8¢+$2.84

MASONIC$29.5357.2¢-$17.99

Pan9X<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$59.89

Value

$65.91

PnL

+$6.03

Record

49%

1068-1120 (2188)

suntoriCTR<$100

The Last Resort

Invested

$19.04

Value

$28.37

PnL

+$9.33

Record

47%

1493-1672 (3165)

cigarettes<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$21.66

Value

$20.11

PnL

-$1.55

Record

53%

6071-5438 (11509)

topdogbigboi<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$21

Value

$19.5

PnL

-$1.5

Record

37%

524-893 (1417)

Research grade

NeutralThe Last Resort at 48%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

The Last Resort

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors MASONIC 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on The Last Resort. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMASONIC 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000The Last Resort 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that The Last Resort wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.