Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)

8 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Liquid (67%) · Liquid at 67¢ · $59K held · ends Nov 3

PARIVISION34¢Liquid66¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Liquid

Consensus Traders

Liquid 67%

Total Value

$58.8K

Combined PnL

$334.08

Smart Money Entry

66.9¢ → 66.5¢

-1% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralLiquid at 67%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Liquid

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION34%

Liquid67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PARIVISION4 traders

Total Value$25.0K

Total Shares74,750

Combined PnL+$354.77

Liquid8 traders

Total Value$33.7K

Total Shares50,456

Combined PnL-$20.69

PARIVISION — 33%Liquid — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Liquid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLiquid 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Liquid 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	PARIVISIONavg 33¢	$21.0K	$21.3K	+$306.04	53% 141-126 (267)
FeedTheBigBird	Liquidavg 67¢	$20.1K	$20.1K	-$0	47% 54-62 (116)
itwasawholething	Liquidavg 66¢	$4.0K	$4.0K	+$30.02	60% 64-42 (106)
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR	PARIVISIONavg 33¢	$3.3K	$3.4K	+$50.13	50% 1241-1240 (2481)
ShadowRealms	Liquidavg 67¢	$3.4K	$3.3K	-$25	52% 121-113 (234)
Stickman22	Liquidavg 66.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$17.5	52% 1678-1555 (3233)
BL BlessedKaladin	Liquidavg 67¢	$2.3K	$2.3K	-$17.5	51% 998-941 (1939)
hasobidale	Liquidavg 67¢	$804	$804	+$6	65% 232-127 (359)
IW iWasEnoughCTR	PARIVISIONavg 34¢	$231.25	$227.85	-$3.4	51% 11450-10811 (22261)
forsenxd	Liquidavg 66¢	$133.89	$134.9	+$3.04	53% 1080-947 (2027)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	PARIVISIONavg 33¢	$132	$134	+$2	51% 1598-1540 (3138)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100	Liquidavg 67¢	$32.67	$32.67	+$0.24	47% 2625-2926 (5551)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$21,014.56

Value

$21.3K

PnL

+$306.04

Record

53%

141-126 (267)

FeedTheBigBird

Liquid

Invested

$20,099.87

Value

$20.1K

PnL

-$0

Record

47%

54-62 (116)

itwasawholething

Liquid

Invested

$3,962.8

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$30.02

Record

60%

64-42 (106)

GooooooollllllllllCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$3,308.63

Value

$3.4K

PnL

+$50.13

Record

50%

1241-1240 (2481)

ShadowRealms

Liquid

Invested

$3,350.21

Value

$3.3K

PnL

-$25

Record

52%

121-113 (234)

Stickman22

Liquid

Invested

$3,009.94

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$17.5

Record

52%

1678-1555 (3233)

BlessedKaladin

Liquid

Invested

$2,345

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$17.5

Record

51%

998-941 (1939)

hasobidale

Liquid

Invested

$804

Value

$804

PnL

+$6

Record

65%

232-127 (359)

iWasEnoughCTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$231.25

Value

$227.85

PnL

-$3.4

Record

51%

11450-10811 (22261)

forsenxd

Liquid

Invested

$133.89

Value

$134.9

PnL

+$3.04

Record

53%

1080-947 (2027)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

PARIVISION

Invested

$132

Value

$134

PnL

+$2

Record

51%

1598-1540 (3138)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542<$100

Liquid

Invested

$32.67

Value

$32.67

PnL

+$0.24

Record

47%

2625-2926 (5551)

Research grade

NeutralLiquid at 67%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Liquid

8 of 12 top traders (67%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Liquid. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrLiquid 86% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Liquid 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Liquid wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance68.6%

66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$45.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

145.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.