Counter-Strike: Liquid vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Beijing Group B
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold PARIVISION (43%) · PARIVISION at 56¢ · $21K held · ends Nov 3
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Neutral
PARIVISION
7
PARIVISION 43%
$20.6K
$130.47
55.3¢ → 55.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralPARIVISION at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F | PARIVISIONavg 56¢ | $10.3K | $10.4K | +$101.28 | 53% 140-125 (265) |
WI Wiretransferxyz | PARIVISIONavg 54¢ | $4.5K | $4.6K | +$84.1 | 53% 765-678 (1443) |
 DumplingBMFCTR | Liquidavg 45.8¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | -$18.34 | 68% 1836-852 (2688) |
TH TheVeteran77CTR | Liquidavg 45¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$25 | 48% 244-265 (509) |
MA manoamano | PARIVISIONavg 55.2¢ | $440.46 | $434.72 | -$5.74 | 51% 528-507 (1035) |
SU suntoriCTR | Liquidavg 45.2¢ | $380.94 | $375.08 | -$5.86 | 45% 12937-15707 (28644) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Liquidavg 44¢ | $2.44 | $2.47 | +$0.03 | 57% 17353-12958 (30311) |
Invested
$10,334.44
Value
$10.4K
PnL
+$101.28
Record
53%
140-125 (265)
Invested
$4,541.65
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$84.1
Record
53%
765-678 (1443)
DumplingBMFCTRInvested
$2,531.63
Value
$2.5K
PnL
-$18.34
Record
68%
1836-852 (2688)
Invested
$2,249.94
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$25
Record
48%
244-265 (509)
Invested
$440.46
Value
$434.72
PnL
-$5.74
Record
51%
528-507 (1035)
Invested
$380.94
Value
$375.08
PnL
-$5.86
Record
45%
12937-15707 (28644)
Invested
$2.44
Value
$2.47
PnL
+$0.03
Record
57%
17353-12958 (30311)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.