Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Legacy, while the market favors Liquid (58%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs Liquid (+1.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Legacy (50%) · Legacy at 42¢ · $19K held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Legacy
4
Legacy 50%
$18.5K
$357.13
41¢ → 42¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralLegacy at 42%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Liquid 58%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
JA jakepaulthegoat2008CTR | Legacyavg 41¢ | $9.4K | $9.6K | +$229.04 | 49% 7195-7348 (14543) |
 relativesignificanceCTR | Legacyavg 41¢ | $6.5K | $6.6K | +$150.09 | 59% 71-50 (121) |
 StudyPrediction | Liquidavg 58.5¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | -$20 | 53% 4151-3718 (7869) |
AS astapzippo | Liquidavg 59¢ | $118 | $116 | -$2 | 58% 1991-1442 (3433) |
Invested
$9,390.66
Value
$9.6K
PnL
+$229.04
Record
49%
7195-7348 (14543)
relativesignificanceCTRInvested
$6,470.58
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$150.09
Record
59%
71-50 (121)
StudyPredictionInvested
$2,209.33
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$20
Record
53%
4151-3718 (7869)
Invested
$118
Value
$116
PnL
-$2
Record
58%
1991-1442 (3433)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.