Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Games Total: O/U 2.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 48¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 50%
$3.2K
$30.01
41.8¢ → 48¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 48%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 StudyPredictionCTR | Overavg 42.2¢ | $2.1K | $2.1K | +$15.15 | 53% 4542-3955 (8497) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 40.1¢ | $506.73 | $499.41 | -$7.32 | 54% 55711-47797 (103508) |
BA BAPEHUK | Underavg 59¢ | $402.38 | $412.61 | +$10.23 | 49% 401-416 (817) |
YI yishiwuchengCTR | Overavg 42.9¢ | $143.26 | $152.41 | +$9.14 | 41% 642-914 (1556) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $33.56 | $36.41 | +$2.85 | 60% 9362-6344 (15706) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 53.8¢ | $6.21 | $6.17 | -$0.04 | 47% 2041-2345 (4386) |
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$2,114
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$15.15
Record
53%
4542-3955 (8497)
RN1CTRInvested
$506.73
Value
$499.41
PnL
-$7.32
Record
54%
55711-47797 (103508)
Invested
$402.38
Value
$412.61
PnL
+$10.23
Record
49%
401-416 (817)
Invested
$143.26
Value
$152.41
PnL
+$9.14
Record
41%
642-914 (1556)
poshposh<$100Invested
$33.56
Value
$36.41
PnL
+$2.85
Record
60%
9362-6344 (15706)
Invested
$6.21
Value
$6.17
PnL
-$0.04
Record
47%
2041-2345 (4386)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.