Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner

17 of 30 top Polymarket traders hold FURIA (57%) · FURIA at 61¢ · $178K held · ends Oct 28

Liquid40¢FURIA60¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

FURIA

Consensus Traders

FURIA 57%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$178.1K

Combined PnL

-$262.49

Smart Money Entry

59.8¢ → 60.5¢

+1% since entry · 17 traders

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

17 of 30 top traders (57%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Liquid40%

FURIA61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

FURIA17 traders

Total Value$72.7K

Total Shares122,756

Combined PnL-$771.06

Liquid13 traders

Total Value$61.2K

Total Shares148,403

Combined PnL+$508.58

FURIA — 57%Liquid — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
WI Wiretransferxyz	FURIAavg 59¢	$23.1K	$23.3K	+$195.52	53% 746-651 (1397)
LL lllllllIlllCTR	Liquidavg 40¢	$20.0K	$20.3K	+$250	55% 287-235 (522)
PN pnhctARB<$100	FURIAavg 52.3¢	$12.5K	$13.1K	+$628.98	54% 451-390 (841)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 52.3¢	$6.7K	$7.7K	+$1.0K
└ Liquid leg	Liquidavg 42.4¢	$5.9K	$5.5K	-$406.74
GO Gooooooollllllllll	FURIAavg 60¢	$12.0K	$12.1K	+$100	50% 1224-1217 (2441)
SI SineNooneEI	FURIAavg 61¢	$12.2K	$12.1K	-$99.96	55% 913-750 (1663)
0X 0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239CTR	Liquidavg 40¢	$11.7K	$11.9K	+$146.67	41% 278-408 (686)
II iii252ARB<$100	FURIAavg 54¢	$10.9K	$11.2K	+$287.14	56% 1093-846 (1939)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 54¢	$8.5K	$8.3K	-$163.33
└ Liquid leg	Liquidavg 39.8¢	$2.5K	$2.9K	+$450.47
RN1ARB<$100	Liquidavg 39.7¢	$10.7K	$10.9K	+$273.45	54% 55711-47797 (103508)
└ Liquid leg	Liquidavg 39.7¢	$8.3K	$8.3K	-$39.71
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 53.5¢	$2.4K	$2.7K	+$313.16
VI vibing123	FURIAavg 60¢	$9.2K	$9.1K	-$76.53	52% 1541-1426 (2967)
cruzNBACTR	Liquidavg 50.7¢	$7.5K	$7.5K	+$43.28	42% 392-545 (937)
AN AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR	Liquidavg 40¢	$7.4K	$7.5K	+$92.03	52% 64-58 (122)
AA aaaa298ARB<$100	Liquidavg 41¢	$6.5K	$6.6K	+$140.56	58% 745-532 (1277)
└ Liquid leg	Liquidavg 41¢	$4.0K	$3.8K	-$244.88
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 53.1¢	$2.4K	$2.8K	+$385.44
JI jizzbucket57	FURIAavg 60¢	$4.7K	$4.8K	+$39.5	61% 1090-711 (1801)
FA fantasy7788CTR	Liquidavg 40¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$57.2	42% 73-99 (172)
GaoJin-GamblingGod	FURIAavg 60¢	$4.0K	$3.9K	-$33.16	50% 547-547 (1094)
AQ aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994CTR	Liquidavg 39.7¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	-$13.2	57% 645-492 (1137)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	FURIAavg 57.3¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	+$35.67	52% 13552-12399 (25951)
└ FURIA leg	FURIAavg 57.3¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$71.4
└ Liquid leg	Liquidavg 41.6¢	$710.71	$674.99	-$35.72
cs2.quant	FURIAavg 60¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$16.67	57% 73-55 (128)
NO nobody2somebodyCTR	Liquidavg 41¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$24.39	52% 612-573 (1185)
13 1337zzz1337	FURIAavg 63.9¢	$2.5K	$1.7K	-$825.86	52% 207-193 (400)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Liquidavg 33.6¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$88.08	47% 2405-2688 (5093)
KA kaheCTR	Liquidavg 41¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$40.24	68% 581-275 (856)
DE delacsynzy1	FURIAavg 60¢	$1.0K	$991.67	-$8.33	51% 432-415 (847)
RU Ruler11CTR	Liquidavg 41¢	$1.0K	$987.8	-$12.2	51% 282-271 (553)
BI BillBenter2026	FURIAavg 60¢	$933.6	$925.82	-$7.78	58% 18397-13498 (31895)

Wiretransferxyz

FURIA

Invested

$23,071.6

Value

$23.3K

PnL

+$195.52

Record

53%

746-651 (1397)

lllllllIlllCTR

Liquid

Invested

$20,000

Value

$20.3K

PnL

+$250

Record

55%

287-235 (522)

pnhctARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$12,509.28

Value

$13.1K

PnL

+$628.98

Record

54%

451-390 (841)

Both legs:

FURIA$6,651.0452.3¢+$1.0K

Liquid$5,858.2342.4¢-$406.74

Gooooooollllllllll

FURIA

Invested

$12,000

Value

$12.1K

PnL

+$100

Record

50%

1224-1217 (2441)

SineNooneEI

FURIA

Invested

$12,195.36

Value

$12.1K

PnL

-$99.96

Record

55%

913-750 (1663)

0xe2D0f0580716E47979206dcFF5220695e7967BbF-1763023416239CTR

Liquid

Invested

$11,733.58

Value

$11.9K

PnL

+$146.67

Record

41%

278-408 (686)

iii252ARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$10,946.3

Value

$11.2K

PnL

+$287.14

Record

56%

1093-846 (1939)

Both legs:

FURIA$8,470.9854¢-$163.33

Liquid$2,475.3239.8¢+$450.47

RN1ARB<$100

Liquid

Invested

$10,674.95

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$273.45

Record

54%

55711-47797 (103508)

Both legs:

Liquid$8,294.4539.7¢-$39.71

FURIA$2,380.553.5¢+$313.16

vibing123

FURIA

Invested

$9,183.67

Value

$9.1K

PnL

-$76.53

Record

52%

1541-1426 (2967)

cruzNBACTR

Liquid

Invested

$7,483.69

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$43.28

Record

42%

392-545 (937)

AnibalAugustoSardinhaCTR

Liquid

Invested

$7,362.33

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$92.03

Record

52%

64-58 (122)

aaaa298ARB<$100

Liquid

Invested

$6,452.62

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$140.56

Record

58%

745-532 (1277)

Both legs:

Liquid$4,016.0541¢-$244.88

FURIA$2,436.5753.1¢+$385.44

jizzbucket57

FURIA

Invested

$4,740

Value

$4.8K

PnL

+$39.5

Record

61%

1090-711 (1801)

fantasy7788CTR

Liquid

Invested

$4,576

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$57.2

Record

42%

73-99 (172)

GaoJin-GamblingGod

FURIA

Invested

$3,979.59

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$33.16

Record

50%

547-547 (1094)

aqzfssqkqzbcbr1994CTR

Liquid

Invested

$3,173.25

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$13.2

Record

57%

645-492 (1137)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

FURIA

Invested

$1,984.84

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$35.67

Record

52%

13552-12399 (25951)

Both legs:

FURIA$1,274.1357.3¢+$71.4

Liquid$710.7141.6¢-$35.72

cs2.quant

FURIA

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$16.67

Record

57%

73-55 (128)

nobody2somebodyCTR

Liquid

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$24.39

Record

52%

612-573 (1185)

1337zzz1337

FURIA

Invested

$2,528.53

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$825.86

Record

52%

207-193 (400)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Liquid

Invested

$1,039.01

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$88.08

Record

47%

2405-2688 (5093)

kaheCTR

Liquid

Invested

$1,100

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$40.24

Record

68%

581-275 (856)

delacsynzy1

FURIA

Invested

$1,000

Value

$991.67

PnL

-$8.33

Record

51%

432-415 (847)

Ruler11CTR

Liquid

Invested

$1,000

Value

$987.8

PnL

-$12.2

Record

51%

282-271 (553)

BillBenter2026

FURIA

Invested

$933.6

Value

$925.82

PnL

-$7.78

Record

58%

18397-13498 (31895)

Research grade

NeutralFURIA at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

FURIA

17 of 30 top traders (57%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that FURIA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.