Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner

14 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Aurora Gaming (58%) · Aurora Gaming at 100¢ · $120K held · ends Oct 27

Liquid<1¢Aurora Gaming>99¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Aurora Gaming

Consensus Traders

Aurora Gaming 58%

9 arb excluded

Total Value

$120.4K

Combined PnL

$-3.7K

Smart Money Entry

86.3¢ → 100¢

+16% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralAurora Gaming at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora Gaming

14 of 24 top traders (58%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Liquid0%

Aurora Gaming100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Aurora Gaming14 traders

Total Value$41.7K

Total Shares50,176

Combined PnL$-1.5K

Liquid10 traders

Total Value$13.9K

Total Shares37,123

Combined PnL$-2.2K

Aurora Gaming — 58%Liquid — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Aurora Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLiquid 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrAurora Gaming 60% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedAurora Gaming 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Aurora Gaming 53% · 17

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LA landighertz	Aurora Gamingavg 99.9¢	$30.5K	$30.5K	+$15.25	99% 1113-4 (1117)
RN1ARB<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 53.4¢	$25.2K	$27.8K	+$2.6K	54% 55311-47349 (102660)
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 53.4¢	$14.5K	$15.6K	+$1.1K
└ Liquid leg	Liquidavg 37.3¢	$10.7K	$12.2K	+$1.5K
PN pnhctARB<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 66.9¢	$22.9K	$21.7K	$-1.3K	54% 433-372 (805)
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 66.9¢	$14.1K	$12.1K	$-2.0K
└ Liquid leg	Liquidavg 39.3¢	$8.8K	$9.6K	+$725.79
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 61.6¢	$7.4K	$7.8K	+$361.02	52% 13467-12324 (25791)
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 61.6¢	$4.8K	$4.5K	-$319.68
└ Liquid leg	Liquidavg 33.7¢	$2.6K	$3.3K	+$680.7
JE jessy2	Aurora Gamingavg 67¢	$5.0K	$4.3K	-$712.5	53% 87-77 (164)
cruzNBACTR	Liquidavg 53.6¢	$5.4K	$4.3K	$-1.1K	42% 390-535 (925)
FA facaigegeARB<$100	Liquidavg 47¢	$4.3K	$3.5K	-$723	48% 376-403 (779)
└ Liquid leg	Liquidavg 47¢	$2.3K	$2.0K	-$216
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 77¢	$2.0K	$1.5K	-$507
AA aaaa298ARB<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 58.4¢	$9.9K	$3.1K	+$5.1K	58% 722-519 (1241)
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 58.4¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$4.9K
└ Liquid leg	Liquidavg 36.2¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$193.95
MU muneyenjayerrrCTR	Liquidavg 41.2¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$76.23	58% 258-185 (443)
IV Ivan948CTR	Liquidavg 32.9¢	$1.9K	$2.4K	+$546.49	44% 44-55 (99)
forsenxdCTR	Liquidavg 28.5¢	$1.4K	$2.1K	+$680.69	54% 1031-892 (1923)
SU suleng66	Aurora Gamingavg 58.2¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$25.35	63% 188-111 (299)
cs2.quant	Aurora Gamingavg 71.8¢	$2.4K	$1.9K	-$477.32	55% 67-54 (121)
RE redvinnyCTR	Liquidavg 51¢	$4.6K	$1.2K	-$582.81	75% 1455-486 (1941)
VeryLucky888	Aurora Gamingavg 68¢	$1.2K	$967.59	-$273.85	58% 40372-29160 (69532)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Liquidavg 52¢	$728	$595	-$133	51% 1195-1129 (2324)
CR Crazyboy77	Aurora Gamingavg 53¢	$414.87	$450.09	+$35.22	51% 167-161 (328)
BA BAPEHUKCTR	Liquidavg 29¢	$290	$424.99	+$135	49% 397-410 (807)
GT gt7238CTR	Liquidavg 19¢	$177.08	$396.1	+$219.02	45% 579-703 (1282)
PA panpidaras1ARB<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 45.5¢	$301.93	$366.52	+$67.35	53% 171-152 (323)
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 45.5¢	$197.17	$249.36	+$52.18
└ Liquid leg	Liquidavg 38¢	$104.76	$117.17	+$15.16
PI PIPIZIN	Aurora Gamingavg 57¢	$300	$302.63	+$2.63	51% 388-369 (757)
latvian.demon	Aurora Gamingavg 76.1¢	$380.63	$287.5	-$93.13	54% 613-525 (1138)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Aurora Gamingavg 68¢	$257.5	$265	+$7.5	53% 5466-4812 (10278)
0X 0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237	Aurora Gamingavg 58¢	$250	$247.84	-$2.16	51% 327-320 (647)
CH chillhouse123ARB<$100	Aurora Gamingavg 63.5¢	$727.01	$220.85	-$193.66	52% 3661-3319 (6980)
└ Aurora Gaming leg	Aurora Gamingavg 63.5¢	$157.12	$142.36	-$88.17
└ Liquid leg	Liquidavg 49¢	$90.41	$78.48	-$105.49

landighertz

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$30,471.9

Value

$30.5K

PnL

+$15.25

Record

99%

1113-4 (1117)

RN1ARB<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$25,197.95

Value

$27.8K

PnL

+$2.6K

Record

54%

55311-47349 (102660)

Both legs:

Aurora Gaming$14,477.6953.4¢+$1.1K

Liquid$10,720.2737.3¢+$1.5K

pnhctARB<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$22,913.15

Value

$21.7K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

54%

433-372 (805)

Both legs:

Aurora Gaming$14,087.5266.9¢$-2.0K

Liquid$8,825.6339.3¢+$725.79

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$7,430.9

Value

$7.8K

PnL

+$361.02

Record

52%

13467-12324 (25791)

Both legs:

Aurora Gaming$4,806.2961.6¢-$319.68

Liquid$2,624.6233.7¢+$680.7

jessy2

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$5,024.99

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$712.5

Record

53%

87-77 (164)

cruzNBACTR

Liquid

Invested

$5,400.54

Value

$4.3K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

42%

390-535 (925)

facaigegeARB<$100

Liquid

Invested

$4,257.98

Value

$3.5K

PnL

-$723

Record

48%

376-403 (779)

Both legs:

Liquid$2,255.9847¢-$216

Aurora Gaming$2,00277¢-$507

aaaa298ARB<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$9,878.98

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

58%

722-519 (1241)

Both legs:

Aurora Gaming$1,806.7358.4¢+$4.9K

Liquid$1,120.3736.2¢+$193.95

muneyenjayerrrCTR

Liquid

Invested

$2,500

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$76.23

Record

58%

258-185 (443)

Ivan948CTR

Liquid

Invested

$1,861.67

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$546.49

Record

44%

44-55 (99)

forsenxdCTR

Liquid

Invested

$1,383.79

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$680.69

Record

54%

1031-892 (1923)

suleng66

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$2,000

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$25.35

Record

63%

188-111 (299)

cs2.quant

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$2,400

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$477.32

Record

55%

67-54 (121)

redvinnyCTR

Liquid

Invested

$4,617.9

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$582.81

Record

75%

1455-486 (1941)

VeryLucky888

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$1,241.44

Value

$967.59

PnL

-$273.85

Record

58%

40372-29160 (69532)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Liquid

Invested

$728

Value

$595

PnL

-$133

Record

51%

1195-1129 (2324)

Crazyboy77

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$414.87

Value

$450.09

PnL

+$35.22

Record

51%

167-161 (328)

BAPEHUKCTR

Liquid

Invested

$290

Value

$424.99

PnL

+$135

Record

49%

397-410 (807)

gt7238CTR

Liquid

Invested

$177.08

Value

$396.1

PnL

+$219.02

Record

45%

579-703 (1282)

panpidaras1ARB<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$301.93

Value

$366.52

PnL

+$67.35

Record

53%

171-152 (323)

Both legs:

Aurora Gaming$197.1745.5¢+$52.18

Liquid$104.7638¢+$15.16

PIPIZIN

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$300

Value

$302.63

PnL

+$2.63

Record

51%

388-369 (757)

latvian.demon

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$380.63

Value

$287.5

PnL

-$93.13

Record

54%

613-525 (1138)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$257.5

Value

$265

PnL

+$7.5

Record

53%

5466-4812 (10278)

0xf483653F527A9EE5730EAF28709C2856Ab5Fa89c-1765271749237

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$250

Value

$247.84

PnL

-$2.16

Record

51%

327-320 (647)

chillhouse123ARB<$100

Aurora Gaming

Invested

$727.01

Value

$220.85

PnL

-$193.66

Record

52%

3661-3319 (6980)

Both legs:

Aurora Gaming$157.1263.5¢-$88.17

Liquid$90.4149¢-$105.49

Research grade

NeutralAurora Gaming at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Aurora Gaming

14 of 24 top traders (58%)9 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Aurora Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpLiquid 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrAurora Gaming 60% · 15

Aligned

Hand-pickedAurora Gaming 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Aurora Gaming 53% · 17

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Aurora Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.