Counter-Strike: Turma do Pagode vs ALKA - Map 2 Winner

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Turma do Pagode (83%) · Turma do Pagode at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30

Turma do Pagode>99¢ALKA<1¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Turma do Pagode

Consensus Traders

Turma do Pagode 83%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$36.2

Smart Money Entry

84.2¢ → 100¢

+19% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTurma do Pagode at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Turma do Pagode

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Turma do Pagode100%

ALKA0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Turma do Pagode5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,046

Combined PnL+$38.15

ALKA1 trader

Total Value$2.1

Total Shares15

Combined PnL-$1.95

Turma do Pagode — 83%ALKA — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Turma do Pagode. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTurma do Pagode 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTurma do Pagode 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrTurma do Pagode 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Turma do Pagode 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Turma do Pagodeavg 82.2¢	$487.88	$487.45	-$0.44	53% 2348-2071 (4419)
TE testBruno2	Turma do Pagodeavg 89.3¢	$1.0K	$316.07	+$42	58% 839-620 (1459)
0X 0x4f2	Turma do Pagodeavg 78.3¢	$175.19	$162.36	-$12.83	52% 9124-8522 (17646)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Turma do Pagodeavg 82¢	$41	$49.98	+$8.98	59% 30249-20952 (51201)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Turma do Pagodeavg 98.5¢	$29.96	$30.4	+$0.44	86% 4948-822 (5770)
poshposhCTR<$100	ALKAavg 27¢	$4.05	$2.1	-$1.95	59% 9753-6736 (16489)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$487.88

Value

$487.45

PnL

-$0.44

Record

53%

2348-2071 (4419)

testBruno2

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$1,032.73

Value

$316.07

PnL

+$42

Record

58%

839-620 (1459)

0x4f2

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$175.19

Value

$162.36

PnL

-$12.83

Record

52%

9124-8522 (17646)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$41

Value

$49.98

PnL

+$8.98

Record

59%

30249-20952 (51201)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Turma do Pagode

Invested

$29.96

Value

$30.4

PnL

+$0.44

Record

86%

4948-822 (5770)

poshposhCTR<$100

ALKA

Invested

$4.05

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$1.95

Record

59%

9753-6736 (16489)

Research grade

NeutralTurma do Pagode at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Turma do Pagode

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Turma do Pagode. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleTurma do Pagode 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpTurma do Pagode 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrTurma do Pagode 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Turma do Pagode 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Turma do Pagode wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.