Counter-Strike: The Chosen Few vs Passion Academy (BO3) - United21 Group D

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold The Chosen Few (50%) · The Chosen Few at 84¢ · $508 held · ends Nov 10

The Chosen Few84¢Passion Academy16¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

The Chosen Few

Consensus Traders

The Chosen Few 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$508.07

Combined PnL

$8.96

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 83.5¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralThe Chosen Few at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

The Chosen Few

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

The Chosen Few84%

Passion Academy17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

The Chosen Few2 traders

Total Value$184.48

Total Shares224

Combined PnL+$1.53

Passion Academy2 traders

Total Value$50.12

Total Shares115

Combined PnL+$7.43

The Chosen Few — 50%Passion Academy — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	Passion Academyavg 31.8¢	$199.55	$273.47	+$73.92	35% 27-51 (78)
└ Passion Academy leg	Passion Academyavg 31.8¢	$150.35	$205.67	+$55.32
└ The Chosen Few leg	The Chosen Fewavg 41¢	$49.2	$67.8	+$18.6
SU suitcase6628	The Chosen Fewavg 83¢	$166	$167	+$1	65% 149-82 (231)
GL glennyorkshireCTR<$100	Passion Academyavg 44¢	$28.69	$28.37	-$0.32	49% 29-30 (59)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Passion Academyavg 28¢	$14	$21.75	+$7.75	52% 5313-4817 (10130)
PA Pan9X<$100	The Chosen Fewavg 56.3¢	$16.94	$17.48	+$0.53	48% 407-443 (850)

319113331313111ARB<$100

Passion Academy

Invested

$199.55

Value

$273.47

PnL

+$73.92

Record

35%

27-51 (78)

Both legs:

Passion Academy$150.3531.8¢+$55.32

The Chosen Few$49.241¢+$18.6

suitcase6628

The Chosen Few

Invested

$166

Value

$167

PnL

+$1

Record

65%

149-82 (231)

glennyorkshireCTR<$100

Passion Academy

Invested

$28.69

Value

$28.37

PnL

-$0.32

Record

49%

29-30 (59)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Passion Academy

Invested

$14

Value

$21.75

PnL

+$7.75

Record

52%

5313-4817 (10130)

Pan9X<$100

The Chosen Few

Invested

$16.94

Value

$17.48

PnL

+$0.53

Record

48%

407-443 (850)

Research grade

NeutralThe Chosen Few at 84%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

The Chosen Few

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that The Chosen Few wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.