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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was SAW — but STATE won instead.

Counter-Strike: STATE vs SAW (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca: Open Qualifier 2 Playoffs

Resolved STATE. 38% of the top Polymarket traders held SAW. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

SAW 45%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

-$826.33

Smart Money Signal

SAW

5 of 13 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

STATE100%

SAW0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

STATE8 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,533

Combined PnL+$1.1K

SAW5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares4,329

Combined PnL$-2.0K

STATE — 62%SAW — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	STATEavg 49.9¢	$1.1K	$2.2K	+$1.1K	55% 22-18 (40)
PN pnhct	STATEavg 62.3¢	$1.3K	$256.21	+$69.75	50% 11-11 (22)
dicekingCTR	SAWavg 55¢	$1.9K	—	$-1.9K	— 5-2 (7)
poshposh<$100	STATEavg 88¢	$85.76	$57.42	-$28.34	48% 652-699 (1351)
TO TommyLeePeecaCTR	SAWavg 7.6¢	$4.0K	—	+$1.2	15% 36-210 (246)
US User7429<$100	STATEavg 91¢	$12.88	$14.15	+$1.27	35% 217-405 (622)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	SAWavg 9.9¢	$22.47	—	-$22.47	34% 349-676 (1025)
LO looppau<$100	STATEavg 99.9¢	$8.71	$8.72	+$0.01	100% 441-0 (441)
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283<$100	STATEavg 91¢	$7.28	$8	+$0.72	22% 21-76 (97)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	SAWavg 14.2¢	$17.14	—	-$17.14	36% 559-993 (1552)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	SAWavg 44¢	$2.09	—	-$2.09	46% 1757-2031 (3788)
NO NotJump	STATEavg 50¢	$262.5	$0.05	+$0	54% 529-444 (973)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	STATEavg 55¢	$14.55	—	+$0.45	43% 295-398 (693)

Invested

$1,092.94

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

55%

22-18 (40)

Invested

$1,290.06

Value

$256.21

PnL

+$69.75

Record

50%

11-11 (22)

Invested

$1,924.92

Value

—

PnL

$-1.9K

Record

—

5-2 (7)

Invested

$85.76

Value

$57.42

PnL

-$28.34

Record

48%

652-699 (1351)

TommyLeePeecaCTR

Invested

$3,988.94

Value

—

PnL

+$1.2

Record

15%

36-210 (246)

Invested

$12.88

Value

$14.15

PnL

+$1.27

Record

35%

217-405 (622)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$22.47

Value

—

PnL

-$22.47

Record

34%

349-676 (1025)

Invested

$8.71

Value

$8.72

PnL

+$0.01

Record

100%

441-0 (441)

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283<$100

Invested

$7.28

Value

$8

PnL

+$0.72

Record

22%

21-76 (97)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$17.14

Value

—

PnL

-$17.14

Record

36%

559-993 (1552)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$2.09

Value

—

PnL

-$2.09

Record

46%

1757-2031 (3788)

Invested

$262.5

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

529-444 (973)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$14.55

Value

—

PnL

+$0.45

Record

43%

295-398 (693)

Smart Money Signal

SAW

5 of 13 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x301f6f04...23921d

Slug

cs2-sta6-saw2-2026-11-12

Traders in this Market

JohnLKellyJr

STATE — $2.2K

pnhct

STATE — $256.21

diceking

SAW — $0

poshposh

STATE — $57.42

TommyLeePeeca

SAW — $0

User7429

STATE — $14.15

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

SAW — $0

looppau

STATE — $8.72

0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283

STATE — $8

topdogbigboi

SAW — $0

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