Counter-Strike: Saint Sinners vs TitanFlow (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #12 Group D

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Saint Sinners (36%) · Saint Sinners at 62¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12

Saint Sinners62¢TitanFlow38¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Saint Sinners

Consensus Traders

Saint Sinners 36%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$193.58

Smart Money Entry

64.4¢ → 62¢

-4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSaint Sinners at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Saint Sinners

5 of 14 top traders (36%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Saint Sinners62%

TitanFlow38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Saint Sinners5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,547

Combined PnL-$216.22

TitanFlow9 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,887

Combined PnL+$22.64

Saint Sinners — 36%TitanFlow — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-42 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Saint Sinners. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTitanFlow 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000TitanFlow 71% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Liquidifier	Saint Sinnersavg 65.5¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$207.93	13% 14-90 (104)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	TitanFlowavg 38.7¢	$449.25	$441.09	-$8.16	37% 534-922 (1456)
latvian.demon	Saint Sinnersavg 60¢	$389.99	$402.99	+$13	8% 38-442 (480)
31 319113331313111ARB<$100	TitanFlowavg 45.5¢	$405.91	$399.65	-$6.26	57% 110-82 (192)
└ TitanFlow leg	TitanFlowavg 45.5¢	$244.65	$228.5	-$16.15
└ Saint Sinners leg	Saint Sinnersavg 54.2¢	$161.26	$171.15	+$9.89
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	TitanFlowavg 37.7¢	$223.33	$263.33	+$40	33% 302-622 (924)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Saint Sinnersavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	-$0	54% 439-373 (812)
└ Saint Sinners leg	Saint Sinnersavg 50¢	$131.25	$162.75	+$31.5
└ TitanFlow leg	TitanFlowavg 50¢	$131.25	$99.75	-$31.5
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	TitanFlowavg 46.4¢	$174.6	$154.09	-$20.51	65% 101-54 (155)
└ TitanFlow leg	TitanFlowavg 46.4¢	$142.8	$116.89	-$25.91
└ Saint Sinners leg	Saint Sinnersavg 53¢	$31.8	$37.2	+$5.4
poshposhCTR	TitanFlowavg 39.1¢	$123.23	$119.64	-$3.59	47% 522-581 (1103)
alpheclabs2CTR	TitanFlowavg 41¢	$107.42	$99.56	-$7.86	45% 192-232 (424)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	TitanFlowavg 40.1¢	$97.2	$92.06	-$5.14	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	TitanFlowavg 37.2¢	$61.89	$63.28	+$1.39	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
PA Pan9X<$100	Saint Sinnersavg 66.7¢	$42.73	$35.69	-$2.08	49% 1072-1133 (2205)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	TitanFlowavg 31.4¢	$23.55	$28.5	+$4.95	41% 251-365 (616)
CA calculate10<$100	Saint Sinnersavg 55¢	$22.67	$23.7	+$1.03	28% 46-118 (164)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	TitanFlowavg 36¢	$18	$19	+$1	53% 6091-5453 (11544)
GA Gaditima	Saint Sinnersavg 68¢	$212.53	$12.57	-$20.23	47% 160-184 (344)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	TitanFlowavg 37.8¢	$9.17	$9.22	+$0.05	44% 384-486 (870)

Liquidifier

Saint Sinners

Invested

$1,822.64

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$207.93

Record

13%

14-90 (104)

topdogbigboiCTR

TitanFlow

Invested

$449.25

Value

$441.09

PnL

-$8.16

Record

37%

534-922 (1456)

latvian.demon

Saint Sinners

Invested

$389.99

Value

$402.99

PnL

+$13

Record

38-442 (480)

319113331313111ARB<$100

TitanFlow

Invested

$405.91

Value

$399.65

PnL

-$6.26

Record

57%

110-82 (192)

Both legs:

TitanFlow$244.6545.5¢-$16.15

Saint Sinners$161.2654.2¢+$9.89

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

TitanFlow

Invested

$223.33

Value

$263.33

PnL

+$40

Record

33%

302-622 (924)

NotJumpARB<$100

Saint Sinners

Invested

$262.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

-$0

Record

54%

439-373 (812)

Both legs:

Saint Sinners$131.2550¢+$31.5

TitanFlow$131.2550¢-$31.5

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

TitanFlow

Invested

$174.6

Value

$154.09

PnL

-$20.51

Record

65%

101-54 (155)

Both legs:

TitanFlow$142.846.4¢-$25.91

Saint Sinners$31.853¢+$5.4

poshposhCTR

TitanFlow

Invested

$123.23

Value

$119.64

PnL

-$3.59

Record

47%

522-581 (1103)

alpheclabs2CTR

TitanFlow

Invested

$107.42

Value

$99.56

PnL

-$7.86

Record

45%

192-232 (424)

38791873984189CTR<$100

TitanFlow

Invested

$97.2

Value

$92.06

PnL

-$5.14

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

suntoriCTR<$100

TitanFlow

Invested

$61.89

Value

$63.28

PnL

+$1.39

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

Pan9X<$100

Saint Sinners

Invested

$42.73

Value

$35.69

PnL

-$2.08

Record

49%

1072-1133 (2205)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

TitanFlow

Invested

$23.55

Value

$28.5

PnL

+$4.95

Record

41%

251-365 (616)

calculate10<$100

Saint Sinners

Invested

$22.67

Value

$23.7

PnL

+$1.03

Record

28%

46-118 (164)

cigarettesCTR<$100

TitanFlow

Invested

$18

Value

$19

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

6091-5453 (11544)

Gaditima

Saint Sinners

Invested

$212.53

Value

$12.57

PnL

-$20.23

Record

47%

160-184 (344)

lryyyCTR<$100

TitanFlow

Invested

$9.17

Value

$9.22

PnL

+$0.05

Record

44%

384-486 (870)

Research grade

NeutralSaint Sinners at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Saint Sinners

5 of 14 top traders (36%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-42 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Saint Sinners. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTitanFlow 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000TitanFlow 71% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Saint Sinners wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.