Counter-Strike: Saint Sinners vs Misa Esports - Map 1 Winner
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Misa Esports (100%) · Misa Esports at 100¢ · $804 held · ends Oct 31
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Neutral
Misa Esports
5
Misa Esports 100%
$804.08
$192.12
63.3¢ → 100¢
+58% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralMisa Esports at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Misa Esportsavg 66.2¢ | $300.38 | $361.93 | +$61.55 | 53% 2409-2095 (4504) |
TO topdogbigboi | Misa Esportsavg 45.2¢ | $102.47 | $205.96 | +$103.49 | 49% 7958-8291 (16249) |
TE testBruno2 | Misa Esportsavg 83.5¢ | $165.77 | $133.94 | +$6.02 | 58% 874-632 (1506) |
0X 0x4f2<$100 | Misa Esportsavg 67¢ | $57.68 | $57.29 | -$0.39 | 52% 9156-8547 (17703) |
 poshposh<$100 | Misa Esportsavg 51.1¢ | $23.51 | $44.96 | +$21.45 | 59% 10160-7156 (17316) |
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$300.38
Value
$361.93
PnL
+$61.55
Record
53%
2409-2095 (4504)
Invested
$102.47
Value
$205.96
PnL
+$103.49
Record
49%
7958-8291 (16249)
Invested
$165.77
Value
$133.94
PnL
+$6.02
Record
58%
874-632 (1506)
Invested
$57.68
Value
$57.29
PnL
-$0.39
Record
52%
9156-8547 (17703)
poshposh<$100Invested
$23.51
Value
$44.96
PnL
+$21.45
Record
59%
10160-7156 (17316)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.