Counter-Strike: Saint Sinners vs Misa Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series #13 Group C

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Misa Esports (42%) · Misa Esports at 74¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 31

Saint Sinners27¢Misa Esports73¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Misa Esports

Consensus Traders

Misa Esports 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.8K

Combined PnL

$153.45

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 73.5¢

+56% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMisa Esports at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Misa Esports

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Saint Sinners27%

Misa Esports74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Misa Esports5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares4,767

Combined PnL+$504.49

Saint Sinners7 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,827

Combined PnL-$351.04

Misa Esports — 42%Saint Sinners — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Misa Esportsavg 61.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$19.52	54% 2413-2095 (4508)
└ Misa Esports leg	Misa Esportsavg 61.2¢	$697.31	$836.83	+$139.52
└ Saint Sinners leg	Saint Sinnersavg 39.2¢	$370.72	$250.73	-$120
SK skibidipa	Misa Esportsavg 50.1¢	$871.63	$931.39	+$59.76	60% 15-10 (25)
daddyradarCTR	Saint Sinnersavg 59.8¢	$872.68	$897.94	+$25.26	67% 87-43 (130)
poshposh	Misa Esportsavg 46.9¢	$593.47	$858.65	+$265.18	59% 10176-7169 (17345)
SW swiftFoxxCTR	Saint Sinnersavg 37.1¢	$995.17	$683.73	-$311.44	70% 53-23 (76)
TO topdogbigboi	Misa Esportsavg 39.9¢	$558.69	$624.52	+$65.84	49% 7973-8309 (16282)
0X 0x4f2	Misa Esportsavg 56.4¢	$327.01	$431.71	+$104.7	52% 9158-8549 (17707)
LE legitgameCTR	Saint Sinnersavg 38.1¢	$200	$209.99	+$9.99	56% 248-192 (440)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Saint Sinnersavg 63.2¢	$63.18	$39.99	-$23.19	49% 19161-19553 (38714)
PA pauleta23<$100	Misa Esportsavg 40¢	$18	$27	+$9	67% 23335-11740 (35075)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Saint Sinnersavg 23.8¢	$37.63	$10	+$11.6	60% 3351-2262 (5613)
US User7429CTR<$100	Saint Sinnersavg 18¢	$2.6	$2.46	-$0.14	55% 8305-6697 (15002)
TE testBruno2CTR	Saint Sinnersavg 61¢	$242.9	$1.89	-$63.12	58% 875-633 (1508)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Misa Esports

Invested

$1,068.03

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$19.52

Record

54%

2413-2095 (4508)

Both legs:

Misa Esports$697.3161.2¢+$139.52

Saint Sinners$370.7239.2¢-$120

skibidipa

Misa Esports

Invested

$871.63

Value

$931.39

PnL

+$59.76

Record

60%

15-10 (25)

daddyradarCTR

Saint Sinners

Invested

$872.68

Value

$897.94

PnL

+$25.26

Record

67%

87-43 (130)

poshposh

Misa Esports

Invested

$593.47

Value

$858.65

PnL

+$265.18

Record

59%

10176-7169 (17345)

swiftFoxxCTR

Saint Sinners

Invested

$995.17

Value

$683.73

PnL

-$311.44

Record

70%

53-23 (76)

topdogbigboi

Misa Esports

Invested

$558.69

Value

$624.52

PnL

+$65.84

Record

49%

7973-8309 (16282)

0x4f2

Misa Esports

Invested

$327.01

Value

$431.71

PnL

+$104.7

Record

52%

9158-8549 (17707)

legitgameCTR

Saint Sinners

Invested

$200

Value

$209.99

PnL

+$9.99

Record

56%

248-192 (440)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Saint Sinners

Invested

$63.18

Value

$39.99

PnL

-$23.19

Record

49%

19161-19553 (38714)

pauleta23<$100

Misa Esports

Invested

$18

Value

$27

PnL

+$9

Record

67%

23335-11740 (35075)

shiifooCTR<$100

Saint Sinners

Invested

$37.63

Value

$10

PnL

+$11.6

Record

60%

3351-2262 (5613)

User7429CTR<$100

Saint Sinners

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.46

PnL

-$0.14

Record

55%

8305-6697 (15002)

testBruno2CTR

Saint Sinners

Invested

$242.9

Value

$1.89

PnL

-$63.12

Record

58%

875-633 (1508)

Research grade

NeutralMisa Esports at 74%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Misa Esports

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Misa Esports wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.