Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold eternal premium, while the market favors Spirit Academy Green (93%). 3 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Spirit Academy Green vs eternal premium (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold eternal premium (30%) · eternal premium at 6.8¢ · $979 held · ends Nov 14

Spirit Academy Green93¢eternal premium7¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

eternal premium

Consensus Traders

eternal premium 30%

Total Value

$978.78

Combined PnL

-$924.98

Smart Money Entry

44.7¢ → 6.8¢

-85% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

Avoideternal premium at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

eternal premium

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Spirit Academy Green 93%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Spirit Academy Green93%

eternal premium7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Spirit Academy Green7 traders

Total Value$882.61

Total Shares1,103

Combined PnL+$103.99

eternal premium3 traders

Total Value$96.18

Total Shares2,517

Combined PnL$-1.0K

Spirit Academy Green — 70%eternal premium — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Spirit Academy Greenavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0	53% 634-568 (1202)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Spirit Academy Greenavg 58¢	$167.31	$243.86	+$95.09	60% 133-89 (222)
31 319113331313111	Spirit Academy Greenavg 96.6¢	$1.5K	$230.23	+$50.63	57% 150-115 (265)
GA Gaditima	Spirit Academy Greenavg 50.4¢	$143.5	$96.9	-$46.6	47% 226-251 (477)
dicekingCTR	eternal premiumavg 48¢	$1.1K	$65.64	-$984.56	— 5-3 (8)
poshposh<$100	Spirit Academy Greenavg 51¢	$15.27	$26.89	+$11.62	47% 786-902 (1688)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	eternal premiumavg 45¢	$22.5	$18	-$4.5	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
PA Pan9X<$100	Spirit Academy Greenavg 50.5¢	$20.86	$14.05	-$6.82	49% 1307-1356 (2663)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	eternal premiumavg 18.8¢	$52.46	$12.54	-$39.92	37% 659-1143 (1802)
LR lryyy<$100	Spirit Academy Greenavg 61¢	$8.11	$8.17	+$0.07	45% 595-734 (1329)

NotJump

Spirit Academy Green

Invested

$262.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Spirit Academy Green

Invested

$167.31

Value

$243.86

PnL

+$95.09

Record

60%

133-89 (222)

319113331313111

Spirit Academy Green

Invested

$1,459.69

Value

$230.23

PnL

+$50.63

Record

57%

150-115 (265)

Gaditima

Spirit Academy Green

Invested

$143.5

Value

$96.9

PnL

-$46.6

Record

47%

226-251 (477)

dicekingCTR

eternal premium

Invested

$1,050.2

Value

$65.64

PnL

-$984.56

Record

—

5-3 (8)

poshposh<$100

Spirit Academy Green

Invested

$15.27

Value

$26.89

PnL

+$11.62

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

cigarettesCTR<$100

eternal premium

Invested

$22.5

Value

$18

PnL

-$4.5

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

Pan9X<$100

Spirit Academy Green

Invested

$20.86

Value

$14.05

PnL

-$6.82

Record

49%

1307-1356 (2663)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

eternal premium

Invested

$52.46

Value

$12.54

PnL

-$39.92

Record

37%

659-1143 (1802)

lryyy<$100

Spirit Academy Green

Invested

$8.11

Value

$8.17

PnL

+$0.07

Record

45%

595-734 (1329)

Research grade

Avoideternal premium at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

eternal premium

3 of 10 top traders (30%)Underdog side (market favors Spirit Academy Green 93%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that eternal premium wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.1%

6.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1133.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

1233.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.