Counter-Strike: SPARX vs Team Nemesis Academy - Map 2 Winner
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold SPARX (40%) · SPARX at 100¢ · $633 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
SPARX
5
SPARX 40%
$633.47
$202.77
61¢ → 100¢
+64% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralSPARX at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on SPARX. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 1am1b | SPARXavg 60¢ | $369.25 | $614.69 | +$245.44 | 55% 180-145 (325) |
TE testBruno2<$100 | SPARXavg 95.7¢ | $53.04 | $17.4 | +$0.73 | 58% 816-601 (1417) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR<$100 | Team Nemesis Academyavg 13.9¢ | $16.03 | $0.8 | -$15.23 | 53% 2208-1974 (4182) |
0X 0x4f2CTR<$100 | Team Nemesis Academyavg 35.3¢ | $28.63 | $0.57 | -$28.06 | 52% 9103-8506 (17609) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Team Nemesis Academyavg 0.7¢ | $0.13 | $0.01 | -$0.12 | 60% 9411-6401 (15812) |
1am1bInvested
$369.25
Value
$614.69
PnL
+$245.44
Record
55%
180-145 (325)
Invested
$53.04
Value
$17.4
PnL
+$0.73
Record
58%
816-601 (1417)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR<$100Invested
$16.03
Value
$0.8
PnL
-$15.23
Record
53%
2208-1974 (4182)
Invested
$28.63
Value
$0.57
PnL
-$28.06
Record
52%
9103-8506 (17609)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.13
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.12
Record
60%
9411-6401 (15812)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.