Counter-Strike: Sökerorg vs Fortress - Map 2 Winner
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Sökerorg (71%) · Sökerorg at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Sökerorg
7
Sökerorg 71%
$3.6K
$795.96
75¢ → 100¢
+33% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralSökerorg at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Sökerorg. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 daddyradar | Sökerorgavg 71.9¢ | $2.1K | $3.0K | +$812.59 | 67% 87-43 (130) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Sökerorgavg 82.4¢ | $309.14 | $306.05 | -$3.09 | 54% 2417-2096 (4513) |
46 467j6yj | Sökerorgavg 99¢ | $258.32 | $260.93 | +$2.61 | 97% 3328-116 (3444) |
 poshposh<$100 | Sökerorgavg 91.4¢ | $52.91 | $57.86 | +$4.95 | 59% 10226-7214 (17440) |
SH shiifooCTR<$100 | Fortressavg 26¢ | $30.68 | $9.24 | -$21.44 | 60% 3357-2265 (5622) |
0X 0x4f2<$100 | Sökerorgavg 59¢ | $1.31 | $2.2 | +$0.89 | 52% 9159-8551 (17710) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Fortressavg 11¢ | $0.55 | $0 | -$0.55 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
daddyradarInvested
$2,145.13
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$812.59
Record
67%
87-43 (130)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$309.14
Value
$306.05
PnL
-$3.09
Record
54%
2417-2096 (4513)
Invested
$258.32
Value
$260.93
PnL
+$2.61
Record
97%
3328-116 (3444)
poshposh<$100Invested
$52.91
Value
$57.86
PnL
+$4.95
Record
59%
10226-7214 (17440)
Invested
$30.68
Value
$9.24
PnL
-$21.44
Record
60%
3357-2265 (5622)
Invested
$1.31
Value
$2.2
PnL
+$0.89
Record
52%
9159-8551 (17710)
Invested
$0.55
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.55
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.