Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Fortress, while the market favors Sökerorg (100%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Sökerorg vs Fortress - Map 1 Winner

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Fortress (43%) · Fortress at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 31

Sökerorg>99¢Fortress<1¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Fortress

Consensus Traders

Fortress 43%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$145.37

Smart Money Entry

37.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidFortress at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fortress

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Sökerorg 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Sökerorg100%

Fortress0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fortress3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,518

Combined PnL+$37.64

Sökerorg4 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,262

Combined PnL+$107.73

Fortress — 43%Sökerorg — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Fortress. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFortress 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSökerorg 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Sökerorg 60% · 5

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Fortressavg 52.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$7.96	54% 2413-2095 (4508)
└ Sökerorg leg	Sökerorgavg 48.7¢	$504.52	$621.22	+$116.7
└ Fortress leg	Fortressavg 52.9¢	$512.71	$388.05	-$124.66
daddyradarCTR	Fortressavg 37.6¢	$770.08	$820.32	+$50.24	67% 87-43 (130)
VP Vps1	Sökerorgavg 99.9¢	$551.41	$551.68	+$0.28	95% 305-15 (320)
0X 0x4f2	Sökerorgavg 44.4¢	$222.47	$300.3	+$77.84	52% 9158-8549 (17707)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Fortressavg 36.6¢	$130.67	$143.67	+$13	49% 7982-8322 (16304)
SH shiifoo	Sökerorgavg 42¢	$169.92	$108.71	+$80.03	60% 3351-2263 (5614)
poshposhCTR<$100	Fortressavg 44.4¢	$88.9	$63.3	-$25.6	59% 10191-7178 (17369)
TE testBruno2	Sökerorgavg 53.3¢	$542.73	$60.67	-$50.41	58% 875-633 (1508)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Fortress

Invested

$1,017.23

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$7.96

Record

54%

2413-2095 (4508)

Both legs:

Sökerorg$504.5248.7¢+$116.7

Fortress$512.7152.9¢-$124.66

daddyradarCTR

Fortress

Invested

$770.08

Value

$820.32

PnL

+$50.24

Record

67%

87-43 (130)

Vps1

Sökerorg

Invested

$551.41

Value

$551.68

PnL

+$0.28

Record

95%

305-15 (320)

0x4f2

Sökerorg

Invested

$222.47

Value

$300.3

PnL

+$77.84

Record

52%

9158-8549 (17707)

topdogbigboiCTR

Fortress

Invested

$130.67

Value

$143.67

PnL

+$13

Record

49%

7982-8322 (16304)

shiifoo

Sökerorg

Invested

$169.92

Value

$108.71

PnL

+$80.03

Record

60%

3351-2263 (5614)

poshposhCTR<$100

Fortress

Invested

$88.9

Value

$63.3

PnL

-$25.6

Record

59%

10191-7178 (17369)

testBruno2

Sökerorg

Invested

$542.73

Value

$60.67

PnL

-$50.41

Record

58%

875-633 (1508)

Research grade

AvoidFortress at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Fortress

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Sökerorg 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Fortress. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpFortress 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrSökerorg 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Sökerorg 60% · 5

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fortress wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.