Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Isurus (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Group C
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold ShindeN (50%) · ShindeN at 75¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
ShindeN
6
ShindeN 50%
$4.3K
-$137.66
59.8¢ → 74.5¢
+25% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralShindeN at 75%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JohnLKellyJr | ShindeNavg 57.9¢ | $1.4K | $2.1K | +$654.88 | 53% 1251-1131 (2382) |
PN pnhct | ShindeNavg 61.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$107.02 | 53% 517-450 (967) |
WI WiretransferxyzCTR | Isurusavg 43¢ | $1.3K | $445.37 | -$830.47 | 53% 755-670 (1425) |
TO TommyLeePeeca | ShindeNavg 65.7¢ | $560.82 | $245.93 | +$138.31 | 53% 1098-962 (2060) |
MA manoamanoCTR | Isurusavg 44¢ | $243.38 | $82.97 | -$160.41 | 51% 479-460 (939) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Isurusavg 38.5¢ | $77 | $30 | -$47 | 49% 8037-8396 (16433) |
JohnLKellyJrInvested
$1,398.74
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$654.88
Record
53%
1251-1131 (2382)
Invested
$1,379.32
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$107.02
Record
53%
517-450 (967)
Invested
$1,275.85
Value
$445.37
PnL
-$830.47
Record
53%
755-670 (1425)
Invested
$560.82
Value
$245.93
PnL
+$138.31
Record
53%
1098-962 (2060)
Invested
$243.38
Value
$82.97
PnL
-$160.41
Record
51%
479-460 (939)
Invested
$77
Value
$30
PnL
-$47
Record
49%
8037-8396 (16433)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.