Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Isurus (BO3) - FiReSPORTS Last Chance Group C
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold ShindeN (67%) · ShindeN at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
ShindeN
6
ShindeN 67%
1 arb excluded
$5.8K
$92.58
90.7¢ → 100¢
+10% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralShindeN at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on ShindeN. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 JohnLKellyJr | ShindeNavg 89.7¢ | $3.8K | $3.9K | +$97.67 | 52% 1222-1120 (2342) |
PN pnhct | ShindeNavg 96.7¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$15.55 | 54% 496-424 (920) |
38 38791873984189 | ShindeNavg 80¢ | $257.23 | $294.1 | +$8.04 | 46% 7951-9381 (17332) |
 Basquetipster<$100 | ShindeNavg 80¢ | $83.55 | $95.53 | +$2.61 | 68% 1662-766 (2428) |
TO TommyLeePeecaARB<$100 | ShindeNavg 87¢ | $110.21 | $94.1 | -$16.11 | 54% 1083-937 (2020) |
| └ ShindeN leg | ShindeNavg 87¢ | $58.03 | $61.37 | +$3.34 | |
| └ Isurus leg | Isurusavg 12.8¢ | $52.17 | $32.73 | -$19.44 | |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Isurusavg 8¢ | $21.31 | $21.38 | +$0.07 | 38% 3192-5199 (8391) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Isurusavg 9¢ | $2.35 | $2.09 | -$0.26 | 59% 9923-6892 (16815) |
JohnLKellyJrInvested
$3,820.99
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$97.67
Record
52%
1222-1120 (2342)
Invested
$1,390.12
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$15.55
Record
54%
496-424 (920)
Invested
$257.23
Value
$294.1
PnL
+$8.04
Record
46%
7951-9381 (17332)
Basquetipster<$100Invested
$83.55
Value
$95.53
PnL
+$2.61
Record
68%
1662-766 (2428)
Invested
$110.21
Value
$94.1
PnL
-$16.11
Record
54%
1083-937 (2020)
Both legs:
Invested
$21.31
Value
$21.38
PnL
+$0.07
Record
38%
3192-5199 (8391)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.09
PnL
-$0.26
Record
59%
9923-6892 (16815)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.