Counter-Strike: SAW Youngsters vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifier: Series Group C

8 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold MASONIC (53%) · MASONIC at 73¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 8

SAW Youngsters28¢MASONIC72¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

MASONIC

Consensus Traders

MASONIC 53%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.6K

Combined PnL

$327.67

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 72.5¢

+41% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralMASONIC at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

MASONIC

8 of 15 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

SAW Youngsters28%

MASONIC73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

MASONIC8 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares6,676

Combined PnL+$369.63

SAW Youngsters7 traders

Total Value$574.47

Total Shares1,030

Combined PnL-$41.97

MASONIC — 53%SAW Youngsters — 47%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BI BillBenter2026	MASONICavg 51.6¢	$3.1K	$3.3K	+$265.42	57% 20227-15044 (35271)
PA panpidaras1ARB<$100	SAW Youngstersavg 43.6¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$54.5	48% 296-323 (619)
└ MASONIC leg	MASONICavg 52.2¢	$739.17	$1.0K	+$287.51
└ SAW Youngsters leg	SAW Youngstersavg 43.6¢	$924.22	$582.79	-$342.01
GT gt7238ARB<$100	MASONICavg 73.4¢	$959.36	$890.6	-$68.76	45% 691-861 (1552)
└ MASONIC leg	MASONICavg 73.4¢	$703.86	$695.35	-$8.51
└ SAW Youngsters leg	SAW Youngstersavg 36¢	$255.5	$195.25	-$60.25
FE ferrariChampions2026	MASONICavg 51¢	$779.75	$820.73	+$40.97	46% 33216-38836 (72052)
CI cigarettes	MASONICavg 54.3¢	$509.3	$547.24	+$37.94	50% 65438-65762 (131200)
VeryLucky888CTR	SAW Youngstersavg 49.2¢	$643.14	$329.89	+$48.38	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	MASONICavg 53.2¢	$185.15	$210.43	+$25.29	56% 39445-31086 (70531)
KA Kaczka	MASONICavg 41¢	$214	$205.91	-$8.09	50% 518-513 (1031)
Future-Tarot-TraderARB<$100	MASONICavg 63.9¢	$166.97	$190.5	+$23.53	64% 1329-748 (2077)
└ MASONIC leg	MASONICavg 63.9¢	$125.34	$142.27	+$16.93
└ SAW Youngsters leg	SAW Youngstersavg 23.7¢	$41.63	$48.23	+$6.6
31 319113331313111CTR	SAW Youngstersavg 63.7¢	$194.27	$187.46	-$6.81	59% 467-318 (785)
38 38791873984189	MASONICavg 53.2¢	$208.95	$184.38	-$3.01	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
PA pauleta23<$100	MASONICavg 67.4¢	$40.07	$48.32	+$8.25	65% 25410-13589 (38999)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	SAW Youngstersavg 47.1¢	$100	$20.16	-$79.84	55% 3880-3232 (7112)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	SAW Youngstersavg 48.3¢	$61	$16.5	+$2.69	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	SAW Youngstersavg 73¢	$16.06	$13.31	-$2.75	48% 39763-42635 (82398)
LO lonmi2511<$100	MASONICavg 33.5¢	$5.03	$7.88	+$2.85	52% 1527-1394 (2921)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	SAW Youngstersavg 52¢	$9.23	$6.57	-$2.66	50% 23433-23429 (46862)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	SAW Youngstersavg 44¢	$1.57	$0.59	-$0.98	47% 8606-9734 (18340)

BillBenter2026

MASONIC

Invested

$3,061.43

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$265.42

Record

57%

20227-15044 (35271)

panpidaras1ARB<$100

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$1,667.21

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$54.5

Record

48%

296-323 (619)

Both legs:

MASONIC$739.1752.2¢+$287.51

SAW Youngsters$924.2243.6¢-$342.01

gt7238ARB<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$959.36

Value

$890.6

PnL

-$68.76

Record

45%

691-861 (1552)

Both legs:

MASONIC$703.8673.4¢-$8.51

SAW Youngsters$255.536¢-$60.25

ferrariChampions2026

MASONIC

Invested

$779.75

Value

$820.73

PnL

+$40.97

Record

46%

33216-38836 (72052)

cigarettes

MASONIC

Invested

$509.3

Value

$547.24

PnL

+$37.94

Record

50%

65438-65762 (131200)

VeryLucky888CTR

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$643.14

Value

$329.89

PnL

+$48.38

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

MASONIC

Invested

$185.15

Value

$210.43

PnL

+$25.29

Record

56%

39445-31086 (70531)

Kaczka

MASONIC

Invested

$214

Value

$205.91

PnL

-$8.09

Record

50%

518-513 (1031)

Future-Tarot-TraderARB<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$166.97

Value

$190.5

PnL

+$23.53

Record

64%

1329-748 (2077)

Both legs:

MASONIC$125.3463.9¢+$16.93

SAW Youngsters$41.6323.7¢+$6.6

319113331313111CTR

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$194.27

Value

$187.46

PnL

-$6.81

Record

59%

467-318 (785)

38791873984189

MASONIC

Invested

$208.95

Value

$184.38

PnL

-$3.01

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

pauleta23<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$40.07

Value

$48.32

PnL

+$8.25

Record

65%

25410-13589 (38999)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$100

Value

$20.16

PnL

-$79.84

Record

55%

3880-3232 (7112)

Pan9XCTR<$100

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$61

Value

$16.5

PnL

+$2.69

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

lryyyCTR<$100

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$16.06

Value

$13.31

PnL

-$2.75

Record

48%

39763-42635 (82398)

lonmi2511<$100

MASONIC

Invested

$5.03

Value

$7.88

PnL

+$2.85

Record

52%

1527-1394 (2921)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$9.23

Value

$6.57

PnL

-$2.66

Record

50%

23433-23429 (46862)

GaditimaCTR<$100

SAW Youngsters

Invested

$1.57

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$0.98

Record

47%

8606-9734 (18340)

Research grade

NeutralMASONIC at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

MASONIC

8 of 15 top traders (53%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that MASONIC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.