Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs Tulpar (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #4 Group D

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Tulpar (20%) · Tulpar at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

ex-Sashi Academy17¢Tulpar83¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tulpar

Consensus Traders

Tulpar 20%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$3.35

Research grade

NeutralTulpar at 83%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tulpar

1 of 5 top traders (20%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

ex-Sashi Academy17%

Tulpar83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Tulpar1 trader

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,199

Combined PnL+$121.43

ex-Sashi Academy4 traders

Total Value$194.01

Total Shares818

Combined PnL-$118.08

Tulpar — 20%ex-Sashi Academy — 80%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Tulpar. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrex-Sashi Academy 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000ex-Sashi Academy 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Liquidifier	Tulparavg 75.4¢	$903.68	$1.0K	+$121.43	13% 13-88 (101)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	ex-Sashi Academyavg 50¢	$262.5	$273	+$10.5	54% 428-364 (792)
└ Tulpar leg	Tulparavg 50¢	$131.25	$212.63	+$81.38
└ ex-Sashi Academy leg	ex-Sashi Academyavg 50¢	$131.25	$60.37	-$70.88
poshposhARB<$100	ex-Sashi Academyavg 42.1¢	$174.5	$106.73	-$67.78	47% 509-574 (1083)
└ ex-Sashi Academy leg	ex-Sashi Academyavg 42.1¢	$156.11	$85.27	-$70.84
└ Tulpar leg	Tulparavg 66¢	$18.39	$21.46	+$3.07
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	ex-Sashi Academyavg 30.9¢	$87.53	$65.05	-$22.47	53% 6080-5449 (11529)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR	ex-Sashi Academyavg 48.3¢	$135.89	$64.68	-$71.21	41% 247-360 (607)
US User7429ARB<$100	Tulparavg 79¢	$62	$55.7	-$6.3	33% 197-394 (591)
└ Tulpar leg	Tulparavg 79¢	$32.84	$34.3	+$1.45
└ ex-Sashi Academy leg	ex-Sashi Academyavg 23.8¢	$29.16	$21.4	-$7.75
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	ex-Sashi Academyavg 32¢	$64	$46	-$18	46% 158-182 (340)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	ex-Sashi Academyavg 36.8¢	$24.67	$18.28	-$6.4	44% 375-478 (853)

Liquidifier

Tulpar

Invested

$903.68

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$121.43

Record

13%

13-88 (101)

NotJumpARB<$100

ex-Sashi Academy

Invested

$262.5

Value

$273

PnL

+$10.5

Record

54%

428-364 (792)

Both legs:

Tulpar$131.2550¢+$81.38

ex-Sashi Academy$131.2550¢-$70.88

poshposhARB<$100

ex-Sashi Academy

Invested

$174.5

Value

$106.73

PnL

-$67.78

Record

47%

509-574 (1083)

Both legs:

ex-Sashi Academy$156.1142.1¢-$70.84

Tulpar$18.3966¢+$3.07

cigarettesCTR<$100

ex-Sashi Academy

Invested

$87.53

Value

$65.05

PnL

-$22.47

Record

53%

6080-5449 (11529)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR

ex-Sashi Academy

Invested

$135.89

Value

$64.68

PnL

-$71.21

Record

41%

247-360 (607)

User7429ARB<$100

Tulpar

Invested

$62

Value

$55.7

PnL

-$6.3

Record

33%

197-394 (591)

Both legs:

Tulpar$32.8479¢+$1.45

ex-Sashi Academy$29.1623.8¢-$7.75

GaditimaCTR<$100

ex-Sashi Academy

Invested

$64

Value

$46

PnL

-$18

Record

46%

158-182 (340)

lryyyCTR<$100

ex-Sashi Academy

Invested

$24.67

Value

$18.28

PnL

-$6.4

Record

44%

375-478 (853)

Research grade

NeutralTulpar at 83%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Tulpar

1 of 5 top traders (20%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on Tulpar. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrex-Sashi Academy 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000ex-Sashi Academy 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tulpar wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.7%

83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.