Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold ex-Sashi Academy, while the market favors Ducks (83%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs Ducks (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #4 Group D

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold ex-Sashi Academy (40%) · ex-Sashi Academy at 18¢ · $949 held · ends Nov 15

ex-Sashi Academy18¢Ducks82¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

ex-Sashi Academy

Consensus Traders

ex-Sashi Academy 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$949.24

Combined PnL

-$205.93

Smart Money Entry

42.4¢ → 17.5¢

-59% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

Avoidex-Sashi Academy at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

ex-Sashi Academy

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Ducks 83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

ex-Sashi Academy18%

Ducks83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

ex-Sashi Academy4 traders

Total Value$307.28

Total Shares1,318

Combined PnL-$251.19

Ducks6 traders

Total Value$389.97

Total Shares473

Combined PnL+$45.26

ex-Sashi Academy — 40%Ducks — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on ex-Sashi Academy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrex-Sashi Academy 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Ducks 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	ex-Sashi Academyavg 50¢	$262.5	$252	-$10.5	50% 1136-1139 (2275)
└ Ducks leg	Ducksavg 50¢	$131.25	$186.38	+$55.13
└ ex-Sashi Academy leg	ex-Sashi Academyavg 50¢	$131.25	$65.63	-$65.63
JU JuiceFarmCTR	ex-Sashi Academyavg 45.9¢	$458.83	$249.98	-$208.85	56% 64-51 (115)
alpheclabs2	Ducksavg 72¢	$178.56	$203.36	+$24.8	45% 369-454 (823)
poshposh<$100	Ducksavg 72¢	$59.2	$57.63	-$1.57	49% 1336-1411 (2747)
PA Pan9X<$100	Ducksavg 55.2¢	$40.82	$52.54	+$11.72	50% 2190-2198 (4388)
latvian.demon<$100	Ducksavg 71¢	$40.53	$46.81	+$6.28	14% 75-469 (544)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	ex-Sashi Academyavg 32¢	$68.19	$38.4	-$29.79	39% 1579-2471 (4050)
GA Gaditima<$100	Ducksavg 71¢	$17.75	$20.5	+$2.75	49% 395-410 (805)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	ex-Sashi Academyavg 30¢	$30	$18	-$12	53% 7499-6626 (14125)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Ducksavg 61¢	$7.84	$9.13	+$1.29	63% 275-163 (438)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	ex-Sashi Academyavg 29¢	$1.45	$0.9	-$0.55	45% 984-1181 (2165)

NotJumpARB<$100

ex-Sashi Academy

Invested

$262.5

Value

$252

PnL

-$10.5

Record

50%

1136-1139 (2275)

Both legs:

Ducks$131.2550¢+$55.13

ex-Sashi Academy$131.2550¢-$65.63

JuiceFarmCTR

ex-Sashi Academy

Invested

$458.83

Value

$249.98

PnL

-$208.85

Record

56%

64-51 (115)

alpheclabs2

Ducks

Invested

$178.56

Value

$203.36

PnL

+$24.8

Record

45%

369-454 (823)

poshposh<$100

Ducks

Invested

$59.2

Value

$57.63

PnL

-$1.57

Record

49%

1336-1411 (2747)

Pan9X<$100

Ducks

Invested

$40.82

Value

$52.54

PnL

+$11.72

Record

50%

2190-2198 (4388)

latvian.demon<$100

Ducks

Invested

$40.53

Value

$46.81

PnL

+$6.28

Record

14%

75-469 (544)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

ex-Sashi Academy

Invested

$68.19

Value

$38.4

PnL

-$29.79

Record

39%

1579-2471 (4050)

Gaditima<$100

Ducks

Invested

$17.75

Value

$20.5

PnL

+$2.75

Record

49%

395-410 (805)

cigarettesCTR<$100

ex-Sashi Academy

Invested

$30

Value

$18

PnL

-$12

Record

53%

7499-6626 (14125)

thatsabing0<$100

Ducks

Invested

$7.84

Value

$9.13

PnL

+$1.29

Record

63%

275-163 (438)

lryyyCTR<$100

ex-Sashi Academy

Invested

$1.45

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$0.55

Record

45%

984-1181 (2165)

Research grade

Avoidex-Sashi Academy at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

ex-Sashi Academy

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Ducks 83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on ex-Sashi Academy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrex-Sashi Academy 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Ducks 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that ex-Sashi Academy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.3%

17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$419.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

519.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.