Counter-Strike: Ryvex vs RoundsGG - Map 2 Winner

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold RoundsGG (60%) · RoundsGG at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 28

Ryvex<1¢RoundsGG>99¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

RoundsGG

Consensus Traders

RoundsGG 60%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$88.56

Smart Money Entry

80.6¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralRoundsGG at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

RoundsGG

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Ryvex0%

RoundsGG100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Ryvex4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,295

Combined PnL+$5.65

RoundsGG6 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,513

Combined PnL+$82.92

Ryvex — 40%RoundsGG — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620CTR	Ryvexavg 53.3¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$7.44	55% 38-31 (69)
VP Vps1	RoundsGGavg 99.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$0.69	96% 261-12 (273)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	RoundsGGavg 60.3¢	$784.62	$868.48	+$83.85	53% 2197-1960 (4157)
poshposh<$100	RoundsGGavg 46.8¢	$76.27	$75.85	-$0.43	60% 9356-6329 (15685)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Ryvexavg 40.8¢	$36.29	$47.53	+$11.24	49% 18594-19014 (37608)
TE testBruno2CTR	Ryvexavg 28.7¢	$298.46	$27.43	-$12.99	57% 806-597 (1403)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	RoundsGGavg 57¢	$18.75	$15.29	-$3.45	59% 30074-20800 (50874)
AD adururu<$100	RoundsGGavg 42.9¢	$13.76	$14.92	+$1.16	53% 355-309 (664)
OX oxe78sh4w98<$100	RoundsGGavg 43¢	$13.48	$14.58	+$1.1	53% 327-291 (618)
BE berlinskiesCTR<$100	Ryvexavg 54¢	$5.4	$5.35	-$0.05	58% 5759-4227 (9986)

0xf395A47ED88c8F18dF328680eF0FbBF496E523dD-1786216128620CTR

Ryvex

Invested

$1,629.05

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$7.44

Record

55%

38-31 (69)

Vps1

RoundsGG

Invested

$1,372.05

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$0.69

Record

96%

261-12 (273)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

RoundsGG

Invested

$784.62

Value

$868.48

PnL

+$83.85

Record

53%

2197-1960 (4157)

poshposh<$100

RoundsGG

Invested

$76.27

Value

$75.85

PnL

-$0.43

Record

60%

9356-6329 (15685)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Ryvex

Invested

$36.29

Value

$47.53

PnL

+$11.24

Record

49%

18594-19014 (37608)

testBruno2CTR

Ryvex

Invested

$298.46

Value

$27.43

PnL

-$12.99

Record

57%

806-597 (1403)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

RoundsGG

Invested

$18.75

Value

$15.29

PnL

-$3.45

Record

59%

30074-20800 (50874)

adururu<$100

RoundsGG

Invested

$13.76

Value

$14.92

PnL

+$1.16

Record

53%

355-309 (664)

oxe78sh4w98<$100

RoundsGG

Invested

$13.48

Value

$14.58

PnL

+$1.1

Record

53%

327-291 (618)

berlinskiesCTR<$100

Ryvex

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

58%

5759-4227 (9986)

Research grade

NeutralRoundsGG at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

RoundsGG

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that RoundsGG wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.