Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs Nexus - Map 1 Winner

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Nexus (63%) · Nexus at 88¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 13

ex-RUSTEC13¢Nexus87¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Nexus

Consensus Traders

Nexus 63%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$188.8

Smart Money Entry

77.8¢ → 87.5¢

+13% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNexus at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nexus

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

ex-RUSTEC13%

Nexus88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nexus5 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,164

Combined PnL+$177.26

ex-RUSTEC3 traders

Total Value$320.62

Total Shares529

Combined PnL+$11.54

Nexus — 63%ex-RUSTEC — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Nexusavg 80.1¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$165.85	56% 3980-3112 (7092)
31 319113331313111	Nexusavg 71.4¢	$621.02	$591.24	-$29.79	57% 150-115 (265)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Nexusavg 72.2¢	$366.37	$395.87	+$29.5	60% 133-89 (222)
NO NotJumpCTR	ex-RUSTECavg 50¢	$262.5	$262.5	+$0	53% 634-568 (1202)
BI BillBenter2026	Nexusavg 84.5¢	$175.2	$187.56	+$12.36	28% 212-558 (770)
CR crabfavor	Nexusavg 88¢	$116.66	$116	-$0.66	—
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	ex-RUSTECavg 16.8¢	$37.09	$47.41	+$10.32	50% 2262-2219 (4481)
Future-Tarot-TraderCTR<$100	ex-RUSTECavg 16.2¢	$34.57	$10.71	+$1.22	51% 121-114 (235)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Nexus

Invested

$1,425.92

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$165.85

Record

56%

3980-3112 (7092)

319113331313111

Nexus

Invested

$621.02

Value

$591.24

PnL

-$29.79

Record

57%

150-115 (265)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Nexus

Invested

$366.37

Value

$395.87

PnL

+$29.5

Record

60%

133-89 (222)

NotJumpCTR

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$262.5

Value

$262.5

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

BillBenter2026

Nexus

Invested

$175.2

Value

$187.56

PnL

+$12.36

Record

28%

212-558 (770)

crabfavor

Nexus

Invested

$116.66

Value

$116

PnL

-$0.66

Record

—

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$37.09

Value

$47.41

PnL

+$10.32

Record

50%

2262-2219 (4481)

Future-Tarot-TraderCTR<$100

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$34.57

Value

$10.71

PnL

+$1.22

Record

51%

121-114 (235)

Research grade

NeutralNexus at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Nexus

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nexus wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.