Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs Honvéd - Map 2 Winner

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold ex-RUSTEC (71%) · ex-RUSTEC at 62¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14

ex-RUSTEC62¢Honvéd38¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

ex-RUSTEC

Consensus Traders

ex-RUSTEC 71%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$160.68

Smart Money Entry

59.1¢ → 61.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Neutralex-RUSTEC at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

ex-RUSTEC

5 of 7 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

ex-RUSTEC62%

Honvéd39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

ex-RUSTEC5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,454

Combined PnL+$141.58

Honvéd2 traders

Total Value$53.47

Total Shares156

Combined PnL+$19.1

ex-RUSTEC — 71%Honvéd — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	ex-RUSTECavg 57¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$83	60% 158-104 (262)
└ ex-RUSTEC leg	ex-RUSTECavg 57¢	$717.85	$844.16	+$126.31
└ Honvéd leg	Honvédavg 36.3¢	$480.63	$437.31	-$43.31
31 319113331313111	ex-RUSTECavg 55.5¢	$1.6K	$539.27	+$133.61	57% 176-135 (311)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	ex-RUSTECavg 53.4¢	$340.4	$349.22	+$8.82	52% 820-759 (1579)
└ ex-RUSTEC leg	ex-RUSTECavg 53.4¢	$193.75	$255.56	+$61.81
└ Honvéd leg	Honvédavg 46.2¢	$146.65	$93.66	-$52.99
CR crabfavor	ex-RUSTECavg 65¢	$245.44	$258.66	+$13.22	57% 95-71 (166)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Honvédavg 29.9¢	$136.51	$193.49	+$56.98	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
└ Honvéd leg	Honvédavg 29.9¢	$71.63	$101.76	+$30.13
└ ex-RUSTEC leg	ex-RUSTECavg 40.7¢	$64.88	$91.74	+$26.85
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	ex-RUSTECavg 61.4¢	$122.62	$117.73	-$4.89	55% 168-135 (303)
poshposhARB<$100	Honvédavg 30.8¢	$72.24	$75.5	+$3.27	49% 1117-1185 (2302)
└ Honvéd leg	Honvédavg 30.8¢	$50.19	$51.29	+$1.09
└ ex-RUSTEC leg	ex-RUSTECavg 62.4¢	$22.05	$24.22	+$2.17
KA Kaczka<$100	ex-RUSTECavg 59¢	$90	$70.93	-$19.07	4% 7-190 (197)
Future-Tarot-TraderCTR	Honvédavg 34.2¢	$155.47	$44.34	+$16.79	55% 145-117 (262)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	ex-RUSTECavg 53¢	$28.7	$26.02	+$18.71	46% 492-580 (1072)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Honvédavg 31¢	$6.82	$9.13	+$2.31	45% 805-991 (1796)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$1,198.48

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$83

Record

60%

158-104 (262)

Both legs:

ex-RUSTEC$717.8557¢+$126.31

Honvéd$480.6336.3¢-$43.31

319113331313111

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$1,579.28

Value

$539.27

PnL

+$133.61

Record

57%

176-135 (311)

NotJumpARB<$100

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$340.4

Value

$349.22

PnL

+$8.82

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

Both legs:

ex-RUSTEC$193.7553.4¢+$61.81

Honvéd$146.6546.2¢-$52.99

crabfavor

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$245.44

Value

$258.66

PnL

+$13.22

Record

57%

95-71 (166)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Honvéd

Invested

$136.51

Value

$193.49

PnL

+$56.98

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

Both legs:

Honvéd$71.6329.9¢+$30.13

ex-RUSTEC$64.8840.7¢+$26.85

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$122.62

Value

$117.73

PnL

-$4.89

Record

55%

168-135 (303)

poshposhARB<$100

Honvéd

Invested

$72.24

Value

$75.5

PnL

+$3.27

Record

49%

1117-1185 (2302)

Both legs:

Honvéd$50.1930.8¢+$1.09

ex-RUSTEC$22.0562.4¢+$2.17

Kaczka<$100

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$90

Value

$70.93

PnL

-$19.07

Record

7-190 (197)

Future-Tarot-TraderCTR

Honvéd

Invested

$155.47

Value

$44.34

PnL

+$16.79

Record

55%

145-117 (262)

omnibus-076daa<$100

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$28.7

Value

$26.02

PnL

+$18.71

Record

46%

492-580 (1072)

lryyyCTR<$100

Honvéd

Invested

$6.82

Value

$9.13

PnL

+$2.31

Record

45%

805-991 (1796)

Research grade

Neutralex-RUSTEC at 62%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

ex-RUSTEC

5 of 7 top traders (71%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that ex-RUSTEC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.