Counter-Strike: ex-RUSTEC vs Honvéd (BO3) - CCT Europe Group Stage

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold ex-RUSTEC (45%) · ex-RUSTEC at 87¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

ex-RUSTEC87¢Honvéd13¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

ex-RUSTEC

Consensus Traders

ex-RUSTEC 45%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$50.23

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 86.5¢

+25% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Neutralex-RUSTEC at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

ex-RUSTEC

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

ex-RUSTEC87%

Honvéd14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

ex-RUSTEC5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,295

Combined PnL+$233.67

Honvéd6 traders

Total Value$373.52

Total Shares1,198

Combined PnL-$183.44

ex-RUSTEC — 45%Honvéd — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on ex-RUSTEC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHonvéd 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000ex-RUSTEC 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F	ex-RUSTECavg 68.1¢	$1.4K	$1.7K	+$227.79	55% 168-135 (303)
NO NotJumpCTR	Honvédavg 50¢	$262.5	$249.38	-$13.12	52% 820-759 (1579)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	ex-RUSTECavg 86.3¢	$132	$127.94	+$0.56	60% 158-104 (262)
GA GaditimaCTR	Honvédavg 32¢	$160	$80	-$80	48% 274-292 (566)
PA Pan9X<$100	ex-RUSTECavg 66.8¢	$56.53	$29.12	+$3.86	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
31 319113331313111<$100	ex-RUSTECavg 71.3¢	$28.57	$28.86	+$0.28	57% 176-135 (311)
poshposhCTR<$100	Honvédavg 31.8¢	$57.04	$28.74	-$28.3	49% 1117-1185 (2302)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Honvédavg 30.9¢	$67.14	$9.78	-$57.35	37% 1028-1723 (2751)
TH thatsabing0<$100	ex-RUSTECavg 68¢	$7.34	$8.53	+$1.19	62% 212-128 (340)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Honvédavg 30¢	$10.13	$5.4	-$4.74	32% 99-207 (306)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Honvédavg 3¢	$0.15	$0.22	+$0.07	45% 805-991 (1796)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255F

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$1,427.98

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$227.79

Record

55%

168-135 (303)

NotJumpCTR

Honvéd

Invested

$262.5

Value

$249.38

PnL

-$13.12

Record

52%

820-759 (1579)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$132

Value

$127.94

PnL

+$0.56

Record

60%

158-104 (262)

GaditimaCTR

Honvéd

Invested

$160

Value

$80

PnL

-$80

Record

48%

274-292 (566)

Pan9X<$100

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$56.53

Value

$29.12

PnL

+$3.86

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

319113331313111<$100

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$28.57

Value

$28.86

PnL

+$0.28

Record

57%

176-135 (311)

poshposhCTR<$100

Honvéd

Invested

$57.04

Value

$28.74

PnL

-$28.3

Record

49%

1117-1185 (2302)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Honvéd

Invested

$67.14

Value

$9.78

PnL

-$57.35

Record

37%

1028-1723 (2751)

thatsabing0<$100

ex-RUSTEC

Invested

$7.34

Value

$8.53

PnL

+$1.19

Record

62%

212-128 (340)

OddstormCTR<$100

Honvéd

Invested

$10.13

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$4.74

Record

32%

99-207 (306)

lryyyCTR<$100

Honvéd

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.07

Record

45%

805-991 (1796)

Research grade

Neutralex-RUSTEC at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

ex-RUSTEC

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on ex-RUSTEC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHonvéd 100% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000ex-RUSTEC 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that ex-RUSTEC wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.