Counter-Strike: Rooster vs Abyssal (BO3) - DFRAG Invitational Group B

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Rooster (80%) · Rooster at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27

Rooster>99¢Abyssal<1¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Rooster

Consensus Traders

Rooster 80%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$718.12

Smart Money Entry

39.7¢ → 99.5¢

+150% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralRooster at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rooster

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rooster100%

Abyssal1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rooster8 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares6,460

Combined PnL-$764.4

Abyssal2 traders

Total Value$199.17

Total Shares271

Combined PnL+$46.29

Rooster — 80%Abyssal — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN Unknownpoluy	Roosteravg 40¢	$2.0K	$1.2K	-$774.71	43% 81-109 (190)
poshposhARB<$100	Abyssalavg 67.3¢	$990.61	$300.91	-$689.69	60% 9028-5963 (14991)
└ Abyssal leg	Abyssalavg 67.3¢	$884.04	$190.35	-$693.69
└ Rooster leg	Roosteravg 82.4¢	$106.57	$110.56	+$4
0X 0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569	Roosteravg 28.1¢	$217.37	$204.85	-$12.52	45% 872-1045 (1917)
SH shiifooCTR	Abyssalavg 57¢	$130.75	$184.16	+$53.41	60% 3207-2151 (5358)
stringXX	Roosteravg 42.3¢	$150	$164.88	+$14.88	50% 80-79 (159)
TE testBruno2	Roosteravg 99¢	$99.99	$100.5	+$0.51	57% 789-588 (1377)
1am1b<$100	Roosteravg 44.6¢	$91.66	$95.53	+$3.87	58% 176-128 (304)
US User7429CTR<$100	Abyssalavg 50.9¢	$22.13	$15.01	-$7.12	55% 8016-6491 (14507)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Roosteravg 22¢	$3.3	$6.98	+$3.68	59% 29904-20632 (50536)
SE seeeeeeb<$100	Roosteravg 50¢	$2.5	$2.48	-$0.02	49% 602-622 (1224)
PA pauleta23<$100	Roosteravg 51¢	$2.5	$2.43	-$0.07	67% 23003-11405 (34408)

Unknownpoluy

Rooster

Invested

$2,000

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$774.71

Record

43%

81-109 (190)

poshposhARB<$100

Abyssal

Invested

$990.61

Value

$300.91

PnL

-$689.69

Record

60%

9028-5963 (14991)

Both legs:

Abyssal$884.0467.3¢-$693.69

Rooster$106.5782.4¢+$4

0x14cA946e75D59b8B7EbE21110512f7b885d78F43-1769608890569

Rooster

Invested

$217.37

Value

$204.85

PnL

-$12.52

Record

45%

872-1045 (1917)

shiifooCTR

Abyssal

Invested

$130.75

Value

$184.16

PnL

+$53.41

Record

60%

3207-2151 (5358)

stringXX

Rooster

Invested

$150

Value

$164.88

PnL

+$14.88

Record

50%

80-79 (159)

testBruno2

Rooster

Invested

$99.99

Value

$100.5

PnL

+$0.51

Record

57%

789-588 (1377)

1am1b<$100

Rooster

Invested

$91.66

Value

$95.53

PnL

+$3.87

Record

58%

176-128 (304)

User7429CTR<$100

Abyssal

Invested

$22.13

Value

$15.01

PnL

-$7.12

Record

55%

8016-6491 (14507)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Rooster

Invested

$3.3

Value

$6.98

PnL

+$3.68

Record

59%

29904-20632 (50536)

seeeeeeb<$100

Rooster

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.02

Record

49%

602-622 (1224)

pauleta23<$100

Rooster

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.07

Record

67%

23003-11405 (34408)

Research grade

NeutralRooster at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Rooster

8 of 10 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rooster wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.