Counter-Strike: Revise vs Aurora Young Blood (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #4 Group A

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Revise (63%) · Revise at 100¢ · $568 held · ends Nov 14

Revise>99¢Aurora Young Blood<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Revise

Consensus Traders

Revise 63%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$568.27

Combined PnL

$5.01

Smart Money Entry

64.3¢ → 100¢

+55% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralRevise at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Revise

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Revise100%

Aurora Young Blood0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Revise5 traders

Total Value$184.05

Total Shares268

Combined PnL+$6.74

Aurora Young Blood3 traders

Total Value$37.09

Total Shares115

Combined PnL-$1.73

Revise — 63%Aurora Young Blood — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Revise. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperRevise 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAurora Young Blood 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Revise 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Reviseavg 50¢	$262.5	$265.13	+$2.63	52% 833-779 (1612)
└ Revise leg	Reviseavg 50¢	$131.25	$157.5	+$26.25
└ Aurora Young Blood leg	Aurora Young Bloodavg 50¢	$131.25	$107.63	-$23.62
RN RN01	Reviseavg 55¢	$100.95	$110.13	+$9.18	— 2-3 (5)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Aurora Young Bloodavg 28.2¢	$115.7	$81.46	-$34.24	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
└ Aurora Young Blood leg	Aurora Young Bloodavg 28.2¢	$104.02	$59.06	-$44.95
└ Revise leg	Reviseavg 43.8¢	$11.68	$22.39	+$10.71
US User7429<$100	Reviseavg 98¢	$53.38	$47.66	-$5.72	40% 331-495 (826)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Aurora Young Bloodavg 41¢	$22.42	$22.42	+$0	64% 622-347 (969)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Reviseavg 68¢	$14.55	$17.33	+$2.78	45% 381-474 (855)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Aurora Young Bloodavg 52¢	$10.95	$8.63	-$2.32	53% 7113-6221 (13334)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Aurora Young Bloodavg 14¢	$5.46	$6.04	+$0.58	48% 278-299 (577)
PA Pan9X<$100	Reviseavg 43¢	$3.44	$4.8	+$1.36	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
LR lryyy<$100	Reviseavg 64¢	$14.98	$4.13	-$0.85	45% 814-997 (1811)

NotJumpARB<$100

Revise

Invested

$262.5

Value

$265.13

PnL

+$2.63

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

Both legs:

Revise$131.2550¢+$26.25

Aurora Young Blood$131.2550¢-$23.62

RN01

Revise

Invested

$100.95

Value

$110.13

PnL

+$9.18

Record

—

2-3 (5)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Aurora Young Blood

Invested

$115.7

Value

$81.46

PnL

-$34.24

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

Both legs:

Aurora Young Blood$104.0228.2¢-$44.95

Revise$11.6843.8¢+$10.71

User7429<$100

Revise

Invested

$53.38

Value

$47.66

PnL

-$5.72

Record

40%

331-495 (826)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Aurora Young Blood

Invested

$22.42

Value

$22.42

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

622-347 (969)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Revise

Invested

$14.55

Value

$17.33

PnL

+$2.78

Record

45%

381-474 (855)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Aurora Young Blood

Invested

$10.95

Value

$8.63

PnL

-$2.32

Record

53%

7113-6221 (13334)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Aurora Young Blood

Invested

$5.46

Value

$6.04

PnL

+$0.58

Record

48%

278-299 (577)

Pan9X<$100

Revise

Invested

$3.44

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$1.36

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

lryyy<$100

Revise

Invested

$14.98

Value

$4.13

PnL

-$0.85

Record

45%

814-997 (1811)

Research grade

NeutralRevise at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Revise

5 of 8 top traders (63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Revise. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperRevise 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAurora Young Blood 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Revise 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Revise wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.