Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Revenge, while the market favors gothboiclique (51%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: Revenge vs gothboiclique - Map 1 Winner

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Revenge (67%) · Revenge at 49¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 29

Revenge49¢gothboiclique51¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Revenge

Consensus Traders

Revenge 67%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$99.08

Smart Money Entry

44.2¢ → 49.3¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralRevenge at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Revenge

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors gothboiclique 51%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Revenge49%

gothboiclique51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Revenge6 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares7,097

Combined PnL+$356.04

gothboiclique3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,377

Combined PnL-$256.95

Revenge — 67%gothboiclique — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR	Revengeavg 44.5¢	$2.1K	$2.4K	+$247.02	75% 106-36 (142)
poshposh	gothboicliqueavg 59¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$230.74	59% 9671-6658 (16329)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Revengeavg 44.7¢	$991.08	$921.97	+$103.25	52% 1210-1099 (2309)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR	Revengeavg 41.2¢	$269.61	$252.99	-$16.62	53% 2322-2056 (4378)
SH shiifoo	gothboicliqueavg 58¢	$277.58	$251.02	-$26.56	60% 3286-2205 (5491)
TE testBruno2	gothboicliqueavg 50.8¢	$133.6	$121.16	+$0.34	58% 827-604 (1431)
0X 0x4f2CTR<$100	Revengeavg 42.6¢	$24.16	$28.33	+$4.17	52% 9109-8514 (17623)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Revengeavg 12.6¢	$6.3	$25	+$18.7	59% 30213-20922 (51135)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Revengeavg 43.4¢	$20	$19.52	-$0.48	67% 23201-11599 (34800)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR

Revenge

Invested

$2,113

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$247.02

Record

75%

106-36 (142)

poshposh

gothboiclique

Invested

$1,559.03

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$230.74

Record

59%

9671-6658 (16329)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Revenge

Invested

$991.08

Value

$921.97

PnL

+$103.25

Record

52%

1210-1099 (2309)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR

Revenge

Invested

$269.61

Value

$252.99

PnL

-$16.62

Record

53%

2322-2056 (4378)

shiifoo

gothboiclique

Invested

$277.58

Value

$251.02

PnL

-$26.56

Record

60%

3286-2205 (5491)

testBruno2

gothboiclique

Invested

$133.6

Value

$121.16

PnL

+$0.34

Record

58%

827-604 (1431)

0x4f2CTR<$100

Revenge

Invested

$24.16

Value

$28.33

PnL

+$4.17

Record

52%

9109-8514 (17623)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Revenge

Invested

$6.3

Value

$25

PnL

+$18.7

Record

59%

30213-20922 (51135)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Revenge

Invested

$20

Value

$19.52

PnL

-$0.48

Record

67%

23201-11599 (34800)

Research grade

NeutralRevenge at 49%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Revenge

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors gothboiclique 51%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Revenge wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.5%

49.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$94.17

Max Loss

-$100.00

194.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.