Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Revenge, while the market favors Gatorian (51%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Counter-Strike: Revenge vs Gatorian - Map 2 Winner

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Revenge (38%) · Revenge at 50¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 28

Revenge50¢Gatorian50¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Revenge

Consensus Traders

Revenge 38%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$3.72

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 49.5¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralRevenge at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Revenge

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Gatorian 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Revenge50%

Gatorian51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Revenge3 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares5,173

Combined PnL+$272.85

Gatorian5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,565

Combined PnL-$276.57

Revenge — 38%Gatorian — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR	Revengeavg 48.9¢	$2.5K	$903.31	+$49.8	74% 104-36 (140)
daddyradarCTR	Revengeavg 37.5¢	$1.1K	$817.57	+$383.45	66% 71-37 (108)
JohnLKellyJrCTR	Revengeavg 55¢	$932.27	$771.86	-$160.41	53% 1199-1077 (2276)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f	Gatorianavg 82.3¢	$616.71	$551.43	-$65.28	53% 2197-1960 (4157)
poshposh	Gatorianavg 81.9¢	$444.12	$298.73	-$145.39	60% 9356-6329 (15685)
AN anyjezz	Gatorianavg 46.2¢	$114.16	$123.52	+$9.36	49% 525-536 (1061)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Gatorianavg 51¢	$80.95	$80.16	-$0.79	49% 18594-19014 (37608)
TE testBruno2	Gatorianavg 89.4¢	$405.08	$59.3	-$74.46	57% 806-597 (1403)

0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70CTR

Revenge

Invested

$2,549.7

Value

$903.31

PnL

+$49.8

Record

74%

104-36 (140)

daddyradarCTR

Revenge

Invested

$1,071.05

Value

$817.57

PnL

+$383.45

Record

66%

71-37 (108)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

Revenge

Invested

$932.27

Value

$771.86

PnL

-$160.41

Record

53%

1199-1077 (2276)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f

Gatorian

Invested

$616.71

Value

$551.43

PnL

-$65.28

Record

53%

2197-1960 (4157)

poshposh

Gatorian

Invested

$444.12

Value

$298.73

PnL

-$145.39

Record

60%

9356-6329 (15685)

anyjezz

Gatorian

Invested

$114.16

Value

$123.52

PnL

+$9.36

Record

49%

525-536 (1061)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Gatorian

Invested

$80.95

Value

$80.16

PnL

-$0.79

Record

49%

18594-19014 (37608)

testBruno2

Gatorian

Invested

$405.08

Value

$59.3

PnL

-$74.46

Record

57%

806-597 (1403)

Research grade

NeutralRevenge at 50%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Revenge

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Gatorian 51%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Revenge wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.