Counter-Strike: Revenge vs Gatorian (BO3) - United21 Playoffs
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Gatorian (40%) · Gatorian at 100¢ · $939 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Gatorian
5
Gatorian 40%
$938.76
$373.04
86.6¢ → 100¢
+15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralGatorian at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposh | Gatorianavg 87.8¢ | $322.11 | $313.46 | -$8.65 | 60% 9356-6329 (15685) |
AN anyjezzCTR | Revengeavg 4.1¢ | $26.03 | $260.34 | +$234.31 | 49% 525-536 (1061) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | Gatorianavg 84.1¢ | $168.99 | $206.93 | +$37.94 | 53% 2197-1960 (4157) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Revengeavg 12.9¢ | $48.02 | $152.82 | +$104.8 | 59% 30074-20800 (50874) |
 JohnLKellyJrCTR<$100 | Revengeavg 4.4¢ | $0.56 | $5.22 | +$4.66 | 53% 1199-1077 (2276) |
poshposhInvested
$322.11
Value
$313.46
PnL
-$8.65
Record
60%
9356-6329 (15685)
Invested
$26.03
Value
$260.34
PnL
+$234.31
Record
49%
525-536 (1061)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$168.99
Value
$206.93
PnL
+$37.94
Record
53%
2197-1960 (4157)
Invested
$48.02
Value
$152.82
PnL
+$104.8
Record
59%
30074-20800 (50874)
JohnLKellyJrCTR<$100Invested
$0.56
Value
$5.22
PnL
+$4.66
Record
53%
1199-1077 (2276)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.