Counter-Strike: RED Canids Academy vs Grêmio Esports - Map 1 Winner
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold RED Canids Academy (80%) · RED Canids Academy at 98¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
RED Canids Academy
5
RED Canids Academy 80%
$1.9K
$245.02
74.2¢ → 98.3¢
+32% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralRED Canids Academy at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on RED Canids Academy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
31 319113331313111 | RED Canids Academyavg 73.7¢ | $827.7 | $890.7 | +$63 | 54% 75-64 (139) |
BI BillBenter2026 | RED Canids Academyavg 75.1¢ | $588.21 | $744.46 | +$156.24 | 23% 144-492 (636) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f | RED Canids Academyavg 72.8¢ | $176.53 | $203.62 | +$27.09 | 64% 63-35 (98) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | RED Canids Academyavg 80¢ | $17.13 | $16.36 | -$0.77 | 60% 648-431 (1079) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Grêmio Esportsavg 10¢ | $1.09 | $0.55 | -$0.55 | 53% 1821-1628 (3449) |
Invested
$827.7
Value
$890.7
PnL
+$63
Record
54%
75-64 (139)
Invested
$588.21
Value
$744.46
PnL
+$156.24
Record
23%
144-492 (636)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fInvested
$176.53
Value
$203.62
PnL
+$27.09
Record
64%
63-35 (98)
Invested
$17.13
Value
$16.36
PnL
-$0.77
Record
60%
648-431 (1079)
Invested
$1.09
Value
$0.55
PnL
-$0.55
Record
53%
1821-1628 (3449)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.