Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Rcave, while the market favors MTX (88%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: Rcave vs MTX (BO1) - ESEA Advanced Europe Regular Season
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Rcave (67%) · Rcave at 13¢ · $416 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Rcave
6
Rcave 67%
$416.17
-$154.01
35.6¢ → 12.5¢
-65% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidRcave at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors MTX 88%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Rcave. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
31 319113331313111 | MTXavg 56.4¢ | $164.98 | $256.84 | +$91.85 | 54% 75-64 (139) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f<$100 | MTXavg 72¢ | $53.89 | $66.85 | +$12.96 | 64% 63-35 (98) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Rcaveavg 37.4¢ | $172.56 | $41.58 | -$130.98 | 48% 1375-1500 (2875) |
CI cigarettesCTR | Rcaveavg 36¢ | $162 | $40.5 | -$121.5 | 53% 5734-5129 (10863) |
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100 | Rcaveavg 8.6¢ | $5.84 | $7.8 | +$1.96 | 60% 648-431 (1079) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Rcaveavg 35.9¢ | $16.86 | $2.61 | -$8.31 | 49% 673-714 (1387) |
Invested
$164.98
Value
$256.84
PnL
+$91.85
Record
54%
75-64 (139)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415f<$100Invested
$53.89
Value
$66.85
PnL
+$12.96
Record
64%
63-35 (98)
Invested
$172.56
Value
$41.58
PnL
-$130.98
Record
48%
1375-1500 (2875)
Invested
$162
Value
$40.5
PnL
-$121.5
Record
53%
5734-5129 (10863)
Invested
$5.84
Value
$7.8
PnL
+$1.96
Record
60%
648-431 (1079)
Invested
$16.86
Value
$2.61
PnL
-$8.31
Record
49%
673-714 (1387)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
12.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.