Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs naocopulas - Map 2 Winner

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold naocopulas (75%) · naocopulas at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 30

QUINTESSÊNCIA<1¢naocopulas>99¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

naocopulas

Consensus Traders

naocopulas 75%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$741.4

Smart Money Entry

78.6¢ → 100¢

+27% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

Neutralnaocopulas at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

naocopulas

6 of 8 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

QUINTESSÊNCIA0%

naocopulas100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

naocopulas6 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares5,735

Combined PnL-$778.21

QUINTESSÊNCIA2 traders

Total Value$223.99

Total Shares586

Combined PnL+$36.81

naocopulas — 75%QUINTESSÊNCIA — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	naocopulasavg 77.1¢	$3.5K	$2.9K	-$611.8	52% 1222-1120 (2342)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	naocopulasavg 50.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$9.7	53% 2369-2080 (4449)
└ naocopulas leg	naocopulasavg 50.4¢	$509.18	$641.47	+$132.29
└ QUINTESSÊNCIA leg	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 50.9¢	$501.82	$359.83	-$141.99
VP Vps1	naocopulasavg 99.9¢	$433.78	$433.99	+$0.22	96% 292-13 (305)
ARTEM-DZYUBA	naocopulasavg 99¢	$329.28	$330.95	+$1.66	86% 5084-858 (5942)
TE testBruno2	naocopulasavg 61.5¢	$1.9K	$251.2	-$151.61	58% 850-628 (1478)
0X 0x4f2ARB<$100	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 57.5¢	$303.76	$243.17	-$60.59	52% 9138-8534 (17672)
└ QUINTESSÊNCIA leg	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 57.5¢	$207.32	$131.62	-$75.7
└ naocopulas leg	naocopulasavg 54.9¢	$96.45	$111.56	+$15.11
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	naocopulasavg 34.6¢	$130.12	$196.8	+$66.68	38% 3192-5199 (8391)
└ naocopulas leg	naocopulasavg 34.6¢	$72.07	$132.35	+$60.29
└ QUINTESSÊNCIA leg	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 32.9¢	$58.05	$64.45	+$6.39
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 29.1¢	$132.47	$165.97	+$33.5	59% 30366-21076 (51442)
poshposhCTR<$100	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 33.1¢	$54.71	$58.02	+$3.31	59% 9923-6892 (16815)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	naocopulasavg 32.3¢	$15.97	$31.38	+$15.41	49% 18981-19394 (38375)
SH shiifoo	naocopulasavg 83.1¢	$113.94	$19.85	-$32.09	60% 3323-2227 (5550)

JohnLKellyJr

naocopulas

Invested

$3,471.55

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$611.8

Record

52%

1222-1120 (2342)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

naocopulas

Invested

$1,011

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$9.7

Record

53%

2369-2080 (4449)

Both legs:

naocopulas$509.1850.4¢+$132.29

QUINTESSÊNCIA$501.8250.9¢-$141.99

Vps1

naocopulas

Invested

$433.78

Value

$433.99

PnL

+$0.22

Record

96%

292-13 (305)

ARTEM-DZYUBA

naocopulas

Invested

$329.28

Value

$330.95

PnL

+$1.66

Record

86%

5084-858 (5942)

testBruno2

naocopulas

Invested

$1,932.01

Value

$251.2

PnL

-$151.61

Record

58%

850-628 (1478)

0x4f2ARB<$100

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$303.76

Value

$243.17

PnL

-$60.59

Record

52%

9138-8534 (17672)

Both legs:

QUINTESSÊNCIA$207.3257.5¢-$75.7

naocopulas$96.4554.9¢+$15.11

topdogbigboiARB<$100

naocopulas

Invested

$130.12

Value

$196.8

PnL

+$66.68

Record

38%

3192-5199 (8391)

Both legs:

naocopulas$72.0734.6¢+$60.29

QUINTESSÊNCIA$58.0532.9¢+$6.39

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$132.47

Value

$165.97

PnL

+$33.5

Record

59%

30366-21076 (51442)

poshposhCTR<$100

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$54.71

Value

$58.02

PnL

+$3.31

Record

59%

9923-6892 (16815)

omnibus-076daa<$100

naocopulas

Invested

$15.97

Value

$31.38

PnL

+$15.41

Record

49%

18981-19394 (38375)

shiifoo

naocopulas

Invested

$113.94

Value

$19.85

PnL

-$32.09

Record

60%

3323-2227 (5550)

Research grade

Neutralnaocopulas at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

naocopulas

6 of 8 top traders (75%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that naocopulas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.