Counter-Strike: QUINTESSÊNCIA vs naocopulas - Map 1 Winner

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold naocopulas (50%) · naocopulas at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 30

QUINTESSÊNCIA<1¢naocopulas>99¢Ends Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

naocopulas

Consensus Traders

naocopulas 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$365.57

Smart Money Entry

74¢ → 100¢

+35% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

Neutralnaocopulas at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

naocopulas

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

QUINTESSÊNCIA0%

naocopulas100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

naocopulas3 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,892

Combined PnL-$379.52

QUINTESSÊNCIA3 traders

Total Value$141.7

Total Shares550

Combined PnL+$13.95

naocopulas — 50%QUINTESSÊNCIA — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJr	naocopulasavg 74.1¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	-$401.73	52% 1221-1120 (2341)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	naocopulasavg 78.5¢	$267.54	$280.72	+$13.18	53% 2368-2080 (4448)
└ naocopulas leg	naocopulasavg 78.5¢	$212.5	$223.98	+$11.48
└ QUINTESSÊNCIA leg	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 16.8¢	$55.04	$56.74	+$1.7
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 30¢	$75	$91.25	+$16.25	59% 30364-21075 (51439)
0X 0x4f2<$100	naocopulasavg 66¢	$54.18	$55.04	+$0.86	52% 9138-8533 (17671)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 16.4¢	$35.85	$37.91	+$2.07	38% 3185-5189 (8374)
TE testBruno2	naocopulasavg 80.4¢	$323.82	$30.73	+$21.35	57% 849-628 (1477)
poshposhCTR<$100	QUINTESSÊNCIAavg 20.8¢	$16.91	$12.54	-$4.37	59% 9914-6887 (16801)

JohnLKellyJr

naocopulas

Invested

$2,801.73

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$401.73

Record

52%

1221-1120 (2341)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

naocopulas

Invested

$267.54

Value

$280.72

PnL

+$13.18

Record

53%

2368-2080 (4448)

Both legs:

naocopulas$212.578.5¢+$11.48

QUINTESSÊNCIA$55.0416.8¢+$1.7

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$75

Value

$91.25

PnL

+$16.25

Record

59%

30364-21075 (51439)

0x4f2<$100

naocopulas

Invested

$54.18

Value

$55.04

PnL

+$0.86

Record

52%

9138-8533 (17671)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$35.85

Value

$37.91

PnL

+$2.07

Record

38%

3185-5189 (8374)

testBruno2

naocopulas

Invested

$323.82

Value

$30.73

PnL

+$21.35

Record

57%

849-628 (1477)

poshposhCTR<$100

QUINTESSÊNCIA

Invested

$16.91

Value

$12.54

PnL

-$4.37

Record

59%

9914-6887 (16801)

Research grade

Neutralnaocopulas at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

naocopulas

3 of 6 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that naocopulas wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.