Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold 33, while the market favors PARIVISION (95%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 33 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca: Closed Qualifier Playoffs

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold 33 (50%) · 33 at 5.5¢ · $807 held · ends Nov 15

PARIVISION95¢335¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

33 50%

Total Value

$807.07

Combined PnL

-$527.17

Smart Money Entry

19.8¢ → 5.5¢

-72% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

Avoid33 at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors PARIVISION 95%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

PARIVISION95%

336%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

PARIVISION6 traders

Total Value$436.93

Total Shares499

Combined PnL-$17.28

336 traders

Total Value$370.14

Total Shares4,437

Combined PnL-$509.89

PARIVISION — 50%33 — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on 33. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPARIVISION 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 100033 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GA Gaditima	PARIVISIONavg 78.7¢	$256.67	$255.87	-$0.8	49% 382-399 (781)
NO nobody2somebodyCTR	33avg 21.1¢	$699	$181.81	-$517.19	— 9-9 (18)
TO TommyLeePeeca	PARIVISIONavg 88.4¢	$159.77	$142.84	-$16.94	21% 63-231 (294)
0X 0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR	33avg 18¢	$127.36	$127.36	-$0	55% 174-142 (316)
VI vibing123CTR<$100	33avg 12¢	$17.07	$25.61	+$8.54	61% 1198-761 (1959)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100	33avg 11.7¢	$23.22	$19.8	-$3.42	56% 4153-3247 (7400)
PA Pan9X<$100	PARIVISIONavg 78.5¢	$15.7	$16.1	+$0.4	50% 2174-2189 (4363)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	PARIVISIONavg 78¢	$11.7	$12.08	+$0.38	46% 461-551 (1012)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	33avg 15¢	$9.3	$11.16	+$1.86	53% 7461-6582 (14043)
TH thatsabing0<$100	PARIVISIONavg 88¢	$5.6	$5.28	-$0.32	62% 264-160 (424)
SU suntori<$100	PARIVISIONavg 83¢	$4.76	$4.76	+$0	46% 3188-3736 (6924)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	33avg 19¢	$4.08	$4.4	+$0.32	35% 625-1142 (1767)

Gaditima

PARIVISION

Invested

$256.67

Value

$255.87

PnL

-$0.8

Record

49%

382-399 (781)

nobody2somebodyCTR

Invested

$699

Value

$181.81

PnL

-$517.19

Record

—

9-9 (18)

TommyLeePeeca

PARIVISION

Invested

$159.77

Value

$142.84

PnL

-$16.94

Record

21%

63-231 (294)

0xC9BFc7986767173b4f1c3FC9B2c6b255FCTR

Invested

$127.36

Value

$127.36

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

174-142 (316)

vibing123CTR<$100

Invested

$17.07

Value

$25.61

PnL

+$8.54

Record

61%

1198-761 (1959)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2CTR<$100

Invested

$23.22

Value

$19.8

PnL

-$3.42

Record

56%

4153-3247 (7400)

Pan9X<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$15.7

Value

$16.1

PnL

+$0.4

Record

50%

2174-2189 (4363)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$11.7

Value

$12.08

PnL

+$0.38

Record

46%

461-551 (1012)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$9.3

Value

$11.16

PnL

+$1.86

Record

53%

7461-6582 (14043)

thatsabing0<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.28

PnL

-$0.32

Record

62%

264-160 (424)

suntori<$100

PARIVISION

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

3188-3736 (6924)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$4.08

Value

$4.4

PnL

+$0.32

Record

35%

625-1142 (1767)

Research grade

Avoid33 at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors PARIVISION 95%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on 33. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPARIVISION 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 100033 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that 33 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance6.8%

5.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1369.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

1469.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.