Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Ducks, while the market favors prodigy (100%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: prodigy vs Ducks - Map 2 Winner

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Ducks (45%) · Ducks at 0.1¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 1

prodigy>99¢Ducks<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Ducks

Consensus Traders

Ducks 45%

Total Value

$7.7K

Combined PnL

$-8.0K

Smart Money Entry

42.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidDucks at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors prodigy 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

prodigy100%

Ducks0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

prodigy6 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares7,228

Combined PnL+$670.74

Ducks5 traders

Total Value$464.72

Total Shares21,031

Combined PnL$-8.6K

prodigy — 55%Ducks — 45%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO looppau	prodigyavg 99.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$1.25	99% 11171-71 (11242)
SW swiftFoxx	prodigyavg 70.7¢	$1.4K	$2.0K	+$589.05	69% 53-24 (77)
SK skibidipa	prodigyavg 75¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$374.25	62% 16-10 (26)
VP Vps1	prodigyavg 99.9¢	$999	$999.5	+$0.5	96% 322-15 (337)
TE testBruno2	prodigyavg 82.3¢	$1.2K	$185.47	-$294.48	58% 899-648 (1547)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Ducksavg 34¢	$236.93	$182.4	-$54.54	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Ducksavg 42.1¢	$8.5K	$162.26	$-8.3K	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR	Ducksavg 68.9¢	$128.07	$119.84	-$8.22	54% 2460-2113 (4573)
MA MarquisDeMott<$100	prodigyavg 99.1¢	$26.7	$26.86	+$0.16	98% 3330-82 (3412)
SH shiifooCTR	Ducksavg 56.5¢	$231.04	$0.2	-$227.39	59% 3437-2346 (5783)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Ducksavg 25.5¢	$10	$0.02	-$9.98	66% 23472-11826 (35298)

looppau

prodigy

Invested

$2,497.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.25

Record

99%

11171-71 (11242)

swiftFoxx

prodigy

Invested

$1,425.83

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$589.05

Record

69%

53-24 (77)

skibidipa

prodigy

Invested

$1,125

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$374.25

Record

62%

16-10 (26)

Vps1

prodigy

Invested

$999

Value

$999.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

96%

322-15 (337)

testBruno2

prodigy

Invested

$1,227.09

Value

$185.47

PnL

-$294.48

Record

58%

899-648 (1547)

topdogbigboiCTR

Ducks

Invested

$236.93

Value

$182.4

PnL

-$54.54

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Ducks

Invested

$8,498.83

Value

$162.26

PnL

$-8.3K

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR

Ducks

Invested

$128.07

Value

$119.84

PnL

-$8.22

Record

54%

2460-2113 (4573)

MarquisDeMott<$100

prodigy

Invested

$26.7

Value

$26.86

PnL

+$0.16

Record

98%

3330-82 (3412)

shiifooCTR

Ducks

Invested

$231.04

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$227.39

Record

59%

3437-2346 (5783)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Ducks

Invested

$10

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$9.98

Record

66%

23472-11826 (35298)

Research grade

AvoidDucks at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Ducks

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors prodigy 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ducks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.