Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold prodigy, while the market favors Ducks (100%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: prodigy vs Ducks - Map 1 Winner
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold prodigy (67%) · prodigy at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
prodigy
6
prodigy 67%
$1.5K
-$57.6
17.6¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Avoidprodigy at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Ducks 100%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SW swiftFoxx | Ducksavg 41.2¢ | $278.24 | $674.73 | +$396.49 | 69% 53-24 (77) |
 0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR | prodigyavg 79.8¢ | $685.14 | $470.02 | -$215.12 | 54% 2460-2113 (4573) |
TE testBruno2 | Ducksavg 86.7¢ | $838.08 | $267.72 | -$29.49 | 58% 899-648 (1547) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | prodigyavg 31.4¢ | $131.7 | $30.18 | -$101.52 | 48% 8991-9637 (18628) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | prodigyavg 2.9¢ | $96.94 | $8.96 | -$87.98 | 50% 19465-19831 (39296) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | prodigyavg 62.3¢ | $20 | $0.02 | -$19.98 | 66% 23472-11826 (35298) |
Invested
$278.24
Value
$674.73
PnL
+$396.49
Record
69%
53-24 (77)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTRInvested
$685.14
Value
$470.02
PnL
-$215.12
Record
54%
2460-2113 (4573)
Invested
$838.08
Value
$267.72
PnL
-$29.49
Record
58%
899-648 (1547)
Invested
$131.7
Value
$30.18
PnL
-$101.52
Record
48%
8991-9637 (18628)
Invested
$96.94
Value
$8.96
PnL
-$87.98
Record
50%
19465-19831 (39296)
Invested
$20
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$19.98
Record
66%
23472-11826 (35298)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.