Counter-Strike: prodigy vs Ducks (BO3) - CCT Europe Contenders #10 Playoffs

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold prodigy (71%) · prodigy at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1

prodigy>99¢Ducks<1¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

prodigy

Consensus Traders

prodigy 71%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.0K

Combined PnL

-$537.42

Smart Money Entry

63.9¢ → 100¢

+56% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

Neutralprodigy at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

prodigy

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

prodigy100%

Ducks0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

prodigy5 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,736

Combined PnL-$482

Ducks2 traders

Total Value$846.69

Total Shares906

Combined PnL-$55.42

prodigy — 71%Ducks — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
daddyradar	prodigyavg 71.5¢	$2.2K	$1.4K	-$824.03	66% 91-47 (138)
AM ameisgoat11ARB<$100	Ducksavg 80.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$125.55	52% 7507-6801 (14308)
└ Ducks leg	Ducksavg 80.9¢	$992.44	$834.6	-$157.83
└ prodigy leg	prodigyavg 12.2¢	$149.37	$392.76	+$283.38
TO topdogbigboi	prodigyavg 33¢	$487	$1.1K	+$581.97	48% 8991-9637 (18628)
OM omnibus-076daaARB<$100	Ducksavg 50.3¢	$4.3K	$970.78	$-3.4K	50% 19465-19831 (39296)
└ Ducks leg	Ducksavg 50.3¢	$4.2K	$622.67	$-3.6K
└ prodigy leg	prodigyavg 38.3¢	$143.98	$348.11	+$204.13
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR	Ducksavg 64.1¢	$883.09	$762.23	-$120.85	54% 2460-2113 (4573)
TE testBruno2	prodigyavg 84.7¢	$2.9K	$298.84	-$221.75	58% 899-648 (1547)
MaktMan	prodigyavg 81¢	$161.7	$162.79	+$1.09	50% 51-50 (101)
PA pauleta23CTR<$100	Ducksavg 8.3¢	$19.02	$84.46	+$65.44	66% 23472-11826 (35298)
US User7429<$100	prodigyavg 62.9¢	$95.72	$76.44	-$19.28	55% 8417-6766 (15183)

daddyradar

prodigy

Invested

$2,202.83

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$824.03

Record

66%

91-47 (138)

ameisgoat11ARB<$100

Ducks

Invested

$1,160.67

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$125.55

Record

52%

7507-6801 (14308)

Both legs:

Ducks$992.4480.9¢-$157.83

prodigy$149.3712.2¢+$283.38

topdogbigboi

prodigy

Invested

$487

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$581.97

Record

48%

8991-9637 (18628)

omnibus-076daaARB<$100

Ducks

Invested

$4,323.1

Value

$970.78

PnL

$-3.4K

Record

50%

19465-19831 (39296)

Both legs:

Ducks$4,179.1250.3¢$-3.6K

prodigy$143.9838.3¢+$204.13

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fCTR

Ducks

Invested

$883.09

Value

$762.23

PnL

-$120.85

Record

54%

2460-2113 (4573)

testBruno2

prodigy

Invested

$2,912.6

Value

$298.84

PnL

-$221.75

Record

58%

899-648 (1547)

MaktMan

prodigy

Invested

$161.7

Value

$162.79

PnL

+$1.09

Record

50%

51-50 (101)

pauleta23CTR<$100

Ducks

Invested

$19.02

Value

$84.46

PnL

+$65.44

Record

66%

23472-11826 (35298)

User7429<$100

prodigy

Invested

$95.72

Value

$76.44

PnL

-$19.28

Record

55%

8417-6766 (15183)

Research grade

Neutralprodigy at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

prodigy

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that prodigy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.