Counter-Strike: Prestige vs Bread Eaters Esports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Prestige (100%) · Prestige at 100¢ · $735 held · ends Oct 27
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Neutral
Prestige
3
Prestige 100%
$735.35
$32.27
95.3¢ → 99.7¢
+5% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralPrestige at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x04fbd55b0626ADd23661c448710a0194fcd25968-1789564287540 | Prestigeavg 94¢ | $436.48 | $434.95 | +$24.66 | 54% 97-84 (181) |
0X 0xd37d84a14d70ac7300defe9997074b3b3fd7c70 | Prestigeavg 97.3¢ | $251.5 | $257.58 | +$6.07 | 75% 103-34 (137) |
 poshposh<$100 | Prestigeavg 96.3¢ | $41.27 | $42.8 | +$1.53 | 60% 9075-5994 (15069) |
Invested
$436.48
Value
$434.95
PnL
+$24.66
Record
54%
97-84 (181)
Invested
$251.5
Value
$257.58
PnL
+$6.07
Record
75%
103-34 (137)
poshposh<$100Invested
$41.27
Value
$42.8
PnL
+$1.53
Record
60%
9075-5994 (15069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.