Counter-Strike: Prestige vs BOJONG (BO3) - Elisa Open Suomi Group Stage

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Prestige (75%) · Prestige at 52¢ · $543 held · ends Nov 12

Prestige52¢BOJONG48¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Prestige

Consensus Traders

Prestige 75%

Total Value

$543.11

Combined PnL

-$73.47

Smart Money Entry

71.9¢ → 51.6¢

-28% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralPrestige at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Prestige

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Prestige52%

BOJONG48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Prestige6 traders

Total Value$453.08

Total Shares600

Combined PnL-$125.38

BOJONG2 traders

Total Value$90.04

Total Shares268

Combined PnL+$51.91

Prestige — 75%BOJONG — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Prestige. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPrestige 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Prestige 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJump	Prestigeavg 50¢	$262.5	$211.58	-$50.92	54% 455-382 (837)
CI cigarettes	Prestigeavg 90.3¢	$241.64	$188.59	-$53.05	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	BOJONGavg 12.5¢	$24.65	$85.78	+$61.13	37% 538-932 (1470)
LR lryyy<$100	Prestigeavg 85.3¢	$36.68	$24.23	-$12.45	44% 389-495 (884)
PA Pan9X<$100	Prestigeavg 81¢	$15.55	$14.32	-$1.23	49% 1077-1133 (2210)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Prestigeavg 90¢	$18	$11.27	-$6.73	63% 366-217 (583)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	BOJONGavg 19¢	$13.47	$4.26	-$9.22	46% 161-187 (348)
poshposh<$100	Prestigeavg 74.6¢	$4.08	$3.08	-$1	47% 532-590 (1122)

NotJump

Prestige

Invested

$262.5

Value

$211.58

PnL

-$50.92

Record

54%

455-382 (837)

cigarettes

Prestige

Invested

$241.64

Value

$188.59

PnL

-$53.05

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

BOJONG

Invested

$24.65

Value

$85.78

PnL

+$61.13

Record

37%

538-932 (1470)

lryyy<$100

Prestige

Invested

$36.68

Value

$24.23

PnL

-$12.45

Record

44%

389-495 (884)

Pan9X<$100

Prestige

Invested

$15.55

Value

$14.32

PnL

-$1.23

Record

49%

1077-1133 (2210)

suitcase6628<$100

Prestige

Invested

$18

Value

$11.27

PnL

-$6.73

Record

63%

366-217 (583)

GaditimaCTR<$100

BOJONG

Invested

$13.47

Value

$4.26

PnL

-$9.22

Record

46%

161-187 (348)

poshposh<$100

Prestige

Invested

$4.08

Value

$3.08

PnL

-$1

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

Research grade

NeutralPrestige at 52%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Prestige

6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 86%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Prestige. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrPrestige 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Prestige 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Prestige wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.8%

51.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$85.71

Max Loss

-$100.00

185.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.