Counter-Strike: Phantom vs ILLYRIANS (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group Stage

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Phantom (63%) · Phantom at 93¢ · $351 held · ends Nov 12

Phantom93¢ILLYRIANS7¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Phantom

Consensus Traders

Phantom 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$351.34

Combined PnL

$0.34

Research grade

NeutralPhantom at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Phantom

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Phantom93%

ILLYRIANS8%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Phantom5 traders

Total Value$80.5

Total Shares92

Combined PnL+$0.36

ILLYRIANS3 traders

Total Value$5.78

Total Shares33

Combined PnL-$0.03

Phantom — 63%ILLYRIANS — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Phantomavg 50¢	$262.5	$265.05	+$2.55	54% 417-355 (772)
└ Phantom leg	Phantomavg 50¢	$131.25	$203.44	+$72.19
└ ILLYRIANS leg	ILLYRIANSavg 50¢	$131.25	$61.62	-$69.63
poshposh<$100	Phantomavg 88¢	$22.38	$22.63	+$0.25	47% 507-571 (1078)
LR lryyy<$100	Phantomavg 88¢	$19.36	$19.58	+$0.22	44% 372-473 (845)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Phantomavg 87.4¢	$18.09	$18.1	+$0.01	41% 243-356 (599)
CI cigarettes<$100	Phantomavg 87¢	$14.19	$14.11	-$0.08	53% 6071-5438 (11509)
TH thatsabing0<$100	Phantomavg 78¢	$6.12	$6.08	-$0.04	66% 134-69 (203)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	ILLYRIANSavg 23.5¢	$4.76	$4.76	+$0	47% 1493-1672 (3165)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	ILLYRIANSavg 7.3¢	$0.87	$0.77	-$0.1	37% 524-893 (1417)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	ILLYRIANSavg 17¢	$0.18	$0.25	+$0.07	49% 1068-1120 (2188)

NotJumpARB<$100

Phantom

Invested

$262.5

Value

$265.05

PnL

+$2.55

Record

54%

417-355 (772)

Both legs:

Phantom$131.2550¢+$72.19

ILLYRIANS$131.2550¢-$69.63

poshposh<$100

Phantom

Invested

$22.38

Value

$22.63

PnL

+$0.25

Record

47%

507-571 (1078)

lryyy<$100

Phantom

Invested

$19.36

Value

$19.58

PnL

+$0.22

Record

44%

372-473 (845)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Phantom

Invested

$18.09

Value

$18.1

PnL

+$0.01

Record

41%

243-356 (599)

cigarettes<$100

Phantom

Invested

$14.19

Value

$14.11

PnL

-$0.08

Record

53%

6071-5438 (11509)

thatsabing0<$100

Phantom

Invested

$6.12

Value

$6.08

PnL

-$0.04

Record

66%

134-69 (203)

suntoriCTR<$100

ILLYRIANS

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.76

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1493-1672 (3165)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

ILLYRIANS

Invested

$0.87

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$0.1

Record

37%

524-893 (1417)

Pan9XCTR<$100

ILLYRIANS

Invested

$0.18

Value

$0.25

PnL

+$0.07

Record

49%

1068-1120 (2188)

Research grade

NeutralPhantom at 93%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Phantom

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Phantom wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.