Counter-Strike: Procyon Gaming vs tao toma - Map 2 Winner

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Procyon Gaming (44%) · Procyon Gaming at 82¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Procyon Gaming82¢tao toma18¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Procyon Gaming

Consensus Traders

Procyon Gaming 44%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$260.13

Smart Money Entry

70.2¢ → 81.5¢

+16% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralProcyon Gaming at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Procyon Gaming

4 of 9 top traders (44%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Procyon Gaming82%

tao toma19%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Procyon Gaming4 traders

Total Value$473.73

Total Shares645

Combined PnL-$191.49

tao toma5 traders

Total Value$311.47

Total Shares922

Combined PnL-$68.64

Procyon Gaming — 44%tao toma — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Procyon Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrtao toma 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000tao toma 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	Procyon Gamingavg 56.5¢	$973.21	$950.22	-$6.59	62% 111-68 (179)
└ Procyon Gaming leg	Procyon Gamingavg 56.5¢	$515.73	$744.17	+$233.54
└ tao toma leg	tao tomaavg 40.1¢	$446.18	$206.06	-$240.13
31 319113331313111	Procyon Gamingavg 71.9¢	$1.9K	$370.83	-$137	56% 124-96 (220)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Procyon Gamingavg 50¢	$262.5	$299.25	+$36.75	55% 499-416 (915)
└ Procyon Gaming leg	Procyon Gamingavg 50¢	$131.25	$220.5	+$89.25
└ tao toma leg	tao tomaavg 50¢	$131.25	$78.75	-$52.5
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	tao tomaavg 35¢	$175	$150	-$25	33% 327-665 (992)
PA panpidaras1ARB<$100	tao tomaavg 36.7¢	$291.48	$145.88	+$0.15	10% 29-275 (304)
└ tao toma leg	tao tomaavg 36.7¢	$166.71	$83.99	-$82.72
└ Procyon Gaming leg	Procyon Gamingavg 41.3¢	$31.34	$61.89	+$82.87
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	tao tomaavg 44.7¢	$93.25	$70.7	-$22.55	36% 552-970 (1522)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	Procyon Gamingavg 52¢	$35.07	$54.97	+$19.9	46% 91-108 (199)
poshposhCTR<$100	tao tomaavg 39.3¢	$46.23	$40.01	-$6.22	48% 590-645 (1235)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	tao tomaavg 38.5¢	$35.38	$27.6	-$7.78	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
LR lryyy<$100	Procyon Gamingavg 70¢	$30.48	$26.8	-$3.68	44% 431-541 (972)
SH shiifooCTR	tao tomaavg 35¢	$137.61	$23.16	-$7.08	62% 1371-836 (2207)
Future-Tarot-Trader	Procyon Gamingavg 82¢	$376.15	$21.13	-$70.7	49% 99-102 (201)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

Procyon Gaming

Invested

$973.21

Value

$950.22

PnL

-$6.59

Record

62%

111-68 (179)

Both legs:

Procyon Gaming$515.7356.5¢+$233.54

tao toma$446.1840.1¢-$240.13

319113331313111

Procyon Gaming

Invested

$1,917.9

Value

$370.83

PnL

-$137

Record

56%

124-96 (220)

NotJumpARB<$100

Procyon Gaming

Invested

$262.5

Value

$299.25

PnL

+$36.75

Record

55%

499-416 (915)

Both legs:

Procyon Gaming$131.2550¢+$89.25

tao toma$131.2550¢-$52.5

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

tao toma

Invested

$175

Value

$150

PnL

-$25

Record

33%

327-665 (992)

panpidaras1ARB<$100

tao toma

Invested

$291.48

Value

$145.88

PnL

+$0.15

Record

10%

29-275 (304)

Both legs:

tao toma$166.7136.7¢-$82.72

Procyon Gaming$31.3441.3¢+$82.87

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

tao toma

Invested

$93.25

Value

$70.7

PnL

-$22.55

Record

36%

552-970 (1522)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

Procyon Gaming

Invested

$35.07

Value

$54.97

PnL

+$19.9

Record

46%

91-108 (199)

poshposhCTR<$100

tao toma

Invested

$46.23

Value

$40.01

PnL

-$6.22

Record

48%

590-645 (1235)

38791873984189CTR<$100

tao toma

Invested

$35.38

Value

$27.6

PnL

-$7.78

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

lryyy<$100

Procyon Gaming

Invested

$30.48

Value

$26.8

PnL

-$3.68

Record

44%

431-541 (972)

shiifooCTR

tao toma

Invested

$137.61

Value

$23.16

PnL

-$7.08

Record

62%

1371-836 (2207)

Future-Tarot-Trader

Procyon Gaming

Invested

$376.15

Value

$21.13

PnL

-$70.7

Record

49%

99-102 (201)

Research grade

NeutralProcyon Gaming at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Procyon Gaming

4 of 9 top traders (44%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Procyon Gaming. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrtao toma 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000tao toma 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Procyon Gaming wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.