Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Team PCH3LK1N, while the market favors Team cutierover (100%). 2 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: Team PCH3LK1N vs Team cutierover (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group B

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Team PCH3LK1N (25%) · Team PCH3LK1N at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Team PCH3LK1N<1¢Team cutierover>99¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Team PCH3LK1N

Consensus Traders

Team PCH3LK1N 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$340.82

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidTeam PCH3LK1N at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Team PCH3LK1N

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Team cutierover 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Team PCH3LK1N0%

Team cutierover100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Team cutierover6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,375

Combined PnL+$491.38

Team PCH3LK1N2 traders

Total Value$363.36

Total Shares1,648

Combined PnL-$832.2

Team cutierover — 75%Team PCH3LK1N — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Team PCH3LK1N. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam cutierover 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Team cutierover 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
poshposh	Team cutieroveravg 34¢	$250.08	$373.62	+$123.53	47% 786-902 (1688)
GA Gaditima	Team cutieroveravg 34¢	$170	$365	+$195	47% 226-251 (477)
TO topdogbigboi	Team cutieroveravg 34.9¢	$223.36	$346.61	+$123.25	37% 659-1143 (1802)
iceblue-CTR	Team PCH3LK1Navg 65.7¢	$1.3K	$330.36	-$800.7	50% 28-28 (56)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Team cutieroveravg 50¢	$262.5	$249.38	-$13.12	53% 634-568 (1202)
└ Team cutierover leg	Team cutieroveravg 50¢	$131.25	$191.63	+$60.38
└ Team PCH3LK1N leg	Team PCH3LK1Navg 50¢	$131.25	$57.75	-$73.5
alpheclabs2	Team cutieroveravg 34¢	$247.6	$64.93	+$29.33	46% 219-260 (479)
PA Pan9X<$100	Team cutieroveravg 36.9¢	$19.93	$39.42	+$19.49	49% 1307-1356 (2663)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Team PCH3LK1Navg 21.5¢	$64.5	$33	-$31.5	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
LR lryyy<$100	Team cutieroveravg 68¢	$12.87	$13.65	+$0.78	45% 595-734 (1329)

poshposh

Team cutierover

Invested

$250.08

Value

$373.62

PnL

+$123.53

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

Gaditima

Team cutierover

Invested

$170

Value

$365

PnL

+$195

Record

47%

226-251 (477)

topdogbigboi

Team cutierover

Invested

$223.36

Value

$346.61

PnL

+$123.25

Record

37%

659-1143 (1802)

iceblue-CTR

Team PCH3LK1N

Invested

$1,321.04

Value

$330.36

PnL

-$800.7

Record

50%

28-28 (56)

NotJumpARB<$100

Team cutierover

Invested

$262.5

Value

$249.38

PnL

-$13.12

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

Both legs:

Team cutierover$131.2550¢+$60.38

Team PCH3LK1N$131.2550¢-$73.5

alpheclabs2

Team cutierover

Invested

$247.6

Value

$64.93

PnL

+$29.33

Record

46%

219-260 (479)

Pan9X<$100

Team cutierover

Invested

$19.93

Value

$39.42

PnL

+$19.49

Record

49%

1307-1356 (2663)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Team PCH3LK1N

Invested

$64.5

Value

$33

PnL

-$31.5

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

lryyy<$100

Team cutierover

Invested

$12.87

Value

$13.65

PnL

+$0.78

Record

45%

595-734 (1329)

Research grade

AvoidTeam PCH3LK1N at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Team PCH3LK1N

2 of 8 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors Team cutierover 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+5 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Team PCH3LK1N. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrTeam cutierover 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Team cutierover 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Team PCH3LK1N wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.