Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold PCIFIC, while the market favors magic (72%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Counter-Strike: PCIFIC vs magic (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca: Open Qualifier 1 Playoffs
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold PCIFIC (100%) · PCIFIC at 28¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
PCIFIC
5
PCIFIC 100%
1 arb excluded
$6.6K
$-2.0K
41.8¢ → 28.5¢
-32% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidPCIFIC at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors magic 72%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on PCIFIC. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VI vibing123CTR | PCIFICavg 43¢ | $5.8K | $4.2K | $-1.6K | 63% 1097-652 (1749) |
GO GooooooollllllllllCTR | PCIFICavg 39.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.3K | -$380.58 | 46% 512-591 (1103) |
PN pnhctARB<$100 | PCIFICavg 29.8¢ | $715.34 | $750.82 | +$35.49 | — 6-7 (13) |
| └ PCIFIC leg | PCIFICavg 29.8¢ | $410.53 | $427.11 | +$16.57 | |
| └ magic leg | magicavg 65¢ | $304.8 | $323.72 | +$18.91 | |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | PCIFICavg 43¢ | $215 | $142.5 | -$72.5 | 28% 161-405 (566) |
GT gt7238CTR<$100 | PCIFICavg 15¢ | $47.25 | $97.65 | +$50.4 | 4% 18-454 (472) |
IW iWasEnoughCTR<$100 | PCIFICavg 39.7¢ | $78.58 | $61.43 | -$17.15 | — 7-8 (15) |
Invested
$5,804.98
Value
$4.2K
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
63%
1097-652 (1749)
Invested
$1,726.67
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$380.58
Record
46%
512-591 (1103)
Invested
$715.34
Value
$750.82
PnL
+$35.49
Record
—
6-7 (13)
Both legs:
Invested
$215
Value
$142.5
PnL
-$72.5
Record
28%
161-405 (566)
Invested
$47.25
Value
$97.65
PnL
+$50.4
Record
4%
18-454 (472)
Invested
$78.58
Value
$61.43
PnL
-$17.15
Record
—
7-8 (15)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.