Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold paiN, while the market favors naocopulas (100%). 1 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Counter-Strike: paiN vs naocopulas - Map 2 Winner

1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold paiN (17%) · paiN at 0.5¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 29

paiN<1¢naocopulas>99¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

paiN

Consensus Traders

paiN 17%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$-2.9K

Research grade

AvoidpaiN at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

paiN

1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors naocopulas 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

paiN1%

naocopulas100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

paiN1 trader

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares7,855

Combined PnL$-3.3K

naocopulas5 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,665

Combined PnL+$440.71

paiN — 17%naocopulas — 83%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on paiN. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpnaocopulas 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrnaocopulas 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000naocopulas 83% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JohnLKellyJrCTR	paiNavg 79.3¢	$6.2K	$2.9K	$-3.3K	52% 1214-1111 (2325)
0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100	paiNavg 73.8¢	$700.69	$735.56	+$34.87	53% 2332-2063 (4395)
└ naocopulas leg	naocopulasavg 20.2¢	$147.08	$457.86	+$310.78
└ paiN leg	paiNavg 73.8¢	$553.6	$277.69	-$275.91
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	naocopulasavg 21.4¢	$126.64	$372.61	+$245.97	59% 30236-20937 (51173)
TE testBruno2	naocopulasavg 26.8¢	$390.05	$278.26	+$48.23	58% 834-611 (1445)
0X 0x4f2	naocopulasavg 22.2¢	$76.05	$215.53	+$139.48	52% 9116-8515 (17631)
ARTEM-DZYUBA	naocopulasavg 98.5¢	$188.17	$120.36	-$67.81	—
poshposh<$100	naocopulasavg 15¢	$23.38	$98.21	+$74.83	59% 9693-6689 (16382)

JohnLKellyJrCTR

paiN

Invested

$6,225.35

Value

$2.9K

PnL

$-3.3K

Record

52%

1214-1111 (2325)

0x99a093771ad58bcfc3023cd75566415fARB<$100

paiN

Invested

$700.69

Value

$735.56

PnL

+$34.87

Record

53%

2332-2063 (4395)

Both legs:

naocopulas$147.0820.2¢+$310.78

paiN$553.673.8¢-$275.91

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

naocopulas

Invested

$126.64

Value

$372.61

PnL

+$245.97

Record

59%

30236-20937 (51173)

testBruno2

naocopulas

Invested

$390.05

Value

$278.26

PnL

+$48.23

Record

58%

834-611 (1445)

0x4f2

naocopulas

Invested

$76.05

Value

$215.53

PnL

+$139.48

Record

52%

9116-8515 (17631)

ARTEM-DZYUBA

naocopulas

Invested

$188.17

Value

$120.36

PnL

-$67.81

Record

—

poshposh<$100

naocopulas

Invested

$23.38

Value

$98.21

PnL

+$74.83

Record

59%

9693-6689 (16382)

Research grade

AvoidpaiN at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

paiN

1 of 6 top traders (17%)Underdog side (market favors naocopulas 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

17% of non-arb traders are on paiN. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpnaocopulas 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrnaocopulas 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000naocopulas 83% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that paiN wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.6%

0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6253.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

6353.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.